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Kamis, 29 Februari 2024

The trick to better answers from generative AI - CIO

Generative AI offers great potential as an interface for enabling users to query your data in unique ways to receive answers honed for their needs. For example, as query assistants, generative AI tools can help customers better navigate an extensive product knowledge base using a simple question-and-answer format.

But before using generative AI to answer questions about your data, it’s important to first evaluate the questions being asked.

That’s the advice Lucky Gunasekara, CEO and co-founder of Miso.ai, has for teams developing generative AI tools today.

Miso.ai is the vendor partner for the Smart Answers project here at CIO.com and four of our sister sites. Smart Answers uses generative AI to answer questions about articles published on CIO.com and Foundry websites Computerworld, CSO, InfoWorld, and Network World. Miso.ai also built a similar Answers project for IDG’s consumer technology websites PCWorld, Macworld, and TechHive.

Interested in how Smart Answers surfaces its insights, I asked Gunasekara to discuss more deeply Miso.ai’s approach to understanding and answering users’ questions.

Large language models (LLMs) “are actually much more naive than we may think,” Gunasekara says. For example, if asked a question with a strong opinion, an LLM will likely go off and look to cherry-pick data that confirms the opinion, even if available data shows the opinion is wrong. So, if asked “Why did Project X fail?”, an LLM might scare up a list of reasons why the project was bad — even if it was a success. And that’s not something you want a public-facing app to do.

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Stocks hate this one weird trick from the calendar - CNN

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.

New York CNN  — 

Leap Day might seem like fun and games — until you consider Wall Street.

The reason leap years exist is because it actually takes the Earth around 365.24 days to orbit the Sun, meaning the typical calendar year of 365 days is off by around a quarter of a day a year. To account for that gap, Julius Caesar in 45 BC decreed that an extra day be added every four years, leading to the Julian calendar.

Pope Gregory XIII in 1582 AD created the Gregorian calendar, coined the term “leap year” and established February 29 as the official leap day. A leap year thus occurs in every year that is divisible by four, but only in century years that are evenly divided by 400, to keep our calendar in alignment with Earth’s rotation around the Sun.

But does that impact financial markets? There are small but notable implications for the bond market and corporate earnings, according to Matt Weller, head of market research at FOREX.com and City Index.

The extra day can lead to a slight increase on the return for bonds whose interest is calculated based on the number of days in a year, since a leap year tacks on an extra day of interest. While that change is slight, it can impact bond pricing in interest-rate sensitive markets, says Weller.

He adds that a leap day can also help marginally raise corporate earnings, since companies get an extra day in a fiscal quarter to operate.

Are there any trends in how stocks perform during leap years? History shows that stocks tend to perform worse when an additional day is added to the calendar. The S&P 500 total return index has averaged a 10.8% gain during leap years versus a 12.8% jump during non-leap years, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data going back to 1971.

The S&P 500 index has averaged a decline of roughly 0.1% on February 29 and a positive trading session just a third of the time, compared to the rest of the month, which averages a 0.03% gain and is positive about 52% of the time, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data going back to 1928.

While the stock rally has stalled somewhat this week, the S&P 500 is on pace to gain about 4.6% in February and is up about 6.3% for the year after notching several record highs.

“Bulls may want to exercise caution, especially after US indices’ strong performance over the last month (and indeed last four months),” wrote Weller in a Tuesday note.

Of course, correlation doesn’t equal causation. Notably, leap years tend to correspond with US presidential election years. While the uncertainty surrounding the election can cause some shakiness on Wall Street, stocks tend to rise during election years. That’s because presidents and the political party in power tend to prioritize fostering a strong economy and stock market to tout on the campaign trail, according to Yardeni Research.

The world’s largest cinema chain, aiming to pull out of a slump, is tweaking the way we watch movies

Last summer, the “Barbenheimer” boom, fueled by the smash success of films “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” breathed fresh life into the movie theater business after months on the edge of a pandemic-induced extinction.

But now that the pink outfits and porkpie hats are off the big screen, concerns remain about the health of the movie business as it faces increased competition from streaming services, an uneven recovery and delays caused by last year’s Hollywood actors’ and writers’ strikes.

AMC Entertainment, often viewed as a bellwether for the industry as the world’s largest movie theater chain, is not immune to those challenges, reports my colleague Samantha Delouya.

To aid its recovery, AMC is diversifying its in-theater offerings and cutting more deals with musicians for concert films. It’s juicing ticket prices by adding higher-end viewing experiences and closing, renovating or relocating theaters. Seeking new sources of revenue, AMC is launching its own branded concession-stand snacks and merchandise, including collectible popcorn buckets, for $25 apiece.

Read more here.

AI is Uncle Sam’s new secret weapon to fight fraud

Uncle Sam has quietly deployed a new secret weapon designed to catch bad guys trying to steal from taxpayers: artificial intelligence.

Starting around late 2022, the Treasury Department began using enhanced fraud-detection methods powered by AI to spot fraud, CNN has learned.

The strategy mirrors what is already being done in the private sector, reports my colleague Matt Egan. Banks and payment companies are increasingly turning to AI to root out suspicious transactions — which the technology can often do with lightning speed.

Uncle Sam’s AI-fueled crackdown on fraud appears to be paying off.

Treasury’s AI-powered fraud detection recovered $375 million in fiscal 2023 alone, Treasury officials tell CNN, marking the first time Treasury is publicly acknowledging it is using AI to detect fraud.

The federal government, using these new crime-fighting strategies, can halt check fraud almost in real-time in part by looking for unusual transaction patterns, Treasury officials tell CNN. And this focus on AI has led to multiple active cases and arrests by law enforcement, Treasury says.

Read more here.

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FF7 Rebirth beginner's tips to know before starting - Polygon

Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth is the sprawling second entry in Square Enix’s ambitious trilogy of Final Fantasy 7 remakes. The game is full of open world content, involving tough battles, dozens of minigames, and even a relationship system.

Some fights can be tough and some of the side content can be annoying, but it’s important to think of Rebirth as a marathon, rather than a sprint. With all there is to do, we gathered up some tips that we wish we knew when starting Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth.

Whether you’re coming straight from Final Fantasy 7 Remake or if you played it on launch (four years ago!), these tips will help you figure out how to get your groove in Rebirth.


Diversify your party

Right away, you’ll want to set your party to have at least one character who can easily attack airborne enemies. Barret will make quick work of flying enemies early on, and Yuffie can too (once she joins your party). Aerith can also help with flying foes, but Yuffie and Barret do a significantly better job on the offensive front. You can also launch Cloud and Tifa up to the sky using specific abilities, though it’s just easier to simply have a character that can handle the airborne stuff quickly.

There’s also several parts of the game where you have to play as specific characters, so you definitely won’t want to keep anyone on the bench too much. The more you play with everyone in your party, the better you’ll be at knowing how they work.

Keep switching party members in battle, too

It may be tempting to just keep hacking and slashing as Cloud, but without specific materia, your party members aren’t very smart — they won’t use their special abilities on their own, so you need to swap and do it for them. Plus, switching to other party members helps charge their ATB gauge faster.

If you want to use powerful Synergy Abilities (which you should), you have to utilize your other party members and their skills first. After expending their ATB gauge numerous times, you’ll be able to unleash these strong skills that do lots of damage or offer helpful support.

Barret fires off ammo at an enemy in Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth Image: Square Enix via Polygon

Pick up everything, and actually use the crafting system

It’s easy to ignore your item transmuter, the crafting system in Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth, but there’s no harm in just picking up everything that you walk over and using it to craft extra gear and potions. Your inventory for resources is essentially unlimited. (You can carry 99 of any resource.)

You don’t have to go out of your way to find stuff, but you should get into the habit of picking every single resource you get, and crafting new items in the item transmuter.

Quite a few side quests will additionally force you to attain a certain crafting level in order to proceed, so staying on top of your crafting ensures you won’t get impeded by being underleveled.

Materia makes all the difference

You should fill up your materia slots with different orbs, even if you don’t think you’ll really use them. An empty slot is a wasted slot, because all equipped material gains AP from battles, even if they go unused.

You’ll never know when you’ll need that extra Warding materia combined with Petrify materia to avoid Petrification. (This is me telling you that you will need that linked combo at a specific point in the game. When all of your party is petrified, you get a game over, so... take this advice.)

Use your Limit Break — or lose it

If your Limit Break bar fills up towards the end of the fight and you think, “Oh, I’ll save it for the next fight,” prepare to be disappointed. Your Limit Break bar will reset every fight, so there’s no holding your Limit Break for a boss fight or for the next one. Might as well use it while you can!

Limit Breaks give temporarily immunity, but Synergy Abilities don’t

During the cool little cutscene animation that plays when activating a Limit Break, that character will be completely immune to all incoming damage. This means you can also deploy your Limit Break at key moments to avoid devastating attacks.

However, despite the fact that Synergy Abilities also trigger a brief cutscene, they do not grant any type of immunity. Your characters can and will die during a Synergy Ability, if they don’t have much health and are standing in the way of an attack.

That said, you can’t really use summons to avoid damage either. The cutscene that plays during summoning freezes the entire battle temporarily during the cast, so you’re not necessarily avoiding any damage — just putting it off until after the vignette wraps.

Yuffie unleashes her limit break during a Gold Saucer fight in Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth Image: Square Enix via Polygon

Assess provides more information than just elemental weaknesses

Some enemies just straight up have no elemental weaknesses, which means you’ll have to stagger them by using other (often very specific) means. Maybe you have to attack a certain part of their body, or perform a counter at right time. Either way, yellow text on the left side of the Assess menu will provide you with information on how to stagger enemies.

Additionally, Assessing enemies in different areas will upgrade Chadley’s combat simulator, allowing you to unlock enemy skills that you can use in battle.

Prioritize Purple chests

If you see a purple glowing chest in the distance, you should actively try to go to it. While yellow glowing chests contain gil or items, purple chests hold new weapons in it, making them necessary to grab if you want to unlock new abilities for characters.

There are also a few minigames that reward weapons, so keep your eye out on that prize list to make sure you don’t miss anything.

Most points in the open world can be used for fast travel

After activating towers, interacting with ziplines, scanning lifesprings, and doing just about anything that gets marked on your map, you can actually fast travel back to these areas. It’s largely helpful if you need to backtrack content you skipped, but it’s not immediately apparent at first.

A FF7 Rebirth map with a zipline highlighted
I don’t know why you would need to fast travel to this specific zipline, but you can.
Image: Square Enix via Polygon

You can return back to old areas throughout the game

While there are moments of the game where fast travel will be disabled, you’ll be able to continuously return to previous areas up until the beginning of chapter 13 — in which you’ll be told that you can’t return once you start the next part. Don’t worry about putting stuff off, as you’ll always be able to go back to it (until the aforementioned final part).


The world of Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth is huge, but we have your back if you need help. We have a rundown of side content rewards, a breakdown of the game’s length, and even an explainer on how to plan ahead for your Gold Saucer date.

If you need more nitty gritty guides like how to find things like ziplines in Costa del Sol, soldiers in Junon, or the Tonberry King boss in Corel, we have those, too. Or if you love Queen’s Blood, we have a comprehensive list of cards and how to get them.

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Rabu, 28 Februari 2024

6 tips for getting a home equity loan after bankruptcy - CBS News

Mortgage Belt
Borrowing money from your home equity can be tricky after bankruptcy, but there are ways you can boost your odds of getting approved for a loan. Getty Images

Filing for bankruptcy can be a challenging and overwhelming period in your financial journey. But while the bankruptcy process can be tough, and can result in serious financial hurdles, it's also a relatively common option to choose. For example, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 452,990 in 2023, according to a report from the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts — an increase of nearly 17% compared to 2022, when 387,721 bankruptcy cases were filed. 

Given the current challenges posed by today's economic environment, the increase in bankruptcy filings year-over-year makes sense. For starters, persistent inflation issues have led to higher prices on consumer goods, causing budgets to be stretched thin. And, the current high-rate environment has led to hefty borrowing costs across the board, putting even more strain on many people's finances. 

But if you've filed for bankruptcy recently — or are planning to — it's important to understand that bankruptcy does not have to be a dead end. In fact, it can be a starting point for rebuilding your financial health, and if you're a homeowner, obtaining a home equity loan may be a crucial step in that process. That said, it won't be an easy path to securing a home equity loan after bankruptcy, but the below tips can help.

Compare your home equity loan options online here.

6 tips for getting a home equity loan after bankruptcy

Getting a home equity loan after a bankruptcy can be difficult but there are ways you can improve your chances of approval. Specifically, borrowers will want to:

Understand the timing

Bankruptcy can stay on your credit report for anywhere from seven to 10 years, depending on the type of bankruptcy filed. While this might seem discouraging, it's crucial to recognize that lenders typically become more willing to work with you as time passes. 

As the bankruptcy filing moves further into the past, lenders may view your financial situation more favorably, upping your chances of getting approved for a home equity loan. So rather than applying right after a bankruptcy filing, be patient and proactive about your credit during that time instead.

Learn more about the home equity loan rates you could qualify for here.

Rebuild your credit

After bankruptcy, rebuilding your credit should become a top priority. Start by obtaining a copy of your credit report to ensure accuracy. Then, focus on paying bills on time, reducing outstanding debts and gradually improving your credit score

Establishing a positive payment history will demonstrate to lenders that you are committed to financial responsibility. You can also consider using secured credit cards or becoming an authorized user on a friend or family member's credit card to add positive information to your credit report.

Shop around for lenders

Not all home equity lenders will have the same criteria or policies regarding post-bankruptcy lending — the same way that not all lenders offer the same types of loans, terms or rates. So, if you're looking for a home equity loan after bankruptcy, it can benefit you to take the time to research and shop around for lenders who specialize in working with borrowers who have experienced financial setbacks. 

For example, while traditional banks may have stricter requirements, there are financial institutions and online home equity lenders that may be more flexible in their evaluation process. As you conduct your search, be sure to compare interest rates, terms and fees to find the most favorable option for your circumstances.

Consider a co-signer

A co-signer with a strong credit history can significantly enhance your chances of securing a home equity loan after bankruptcy. When you add a co-signer to a loan, they're essentially vouching for your ability to repay the loan, giving lenders added assurance — which can be vital after a bankruptcy. 

However, it's important to recognize that the co-signer you use is equally responsible for the loan, and any default could negatively impact their credit, so be sure that you have the ability to repay the loan before adding another party to the obligation. Open communication and trust are key when involving a co-signer in the loan application process.

Highlight positive financial changes

When applying for a home equity loan after a bankruptcy, it can help to be prepared and provide evidence of positive financial changes you've made in the time since. This could include stable employment, increased income or successful management of other debts. Demonstrating responsible financial behavior and a commitment to improving your financial standing will make a positive impression on lenders. That, in turn, can enhance your chances of being approved for a loan.

Seek professional guidance

Navigating the complexities of obtaining a home equity loan after bankruptcy can be challenging, so seeking professional guidance can be a wise move in some circumstances. For example, it may help to consult with a financial advisor or mortgage broker who specializes in post-bankruptcy financing. They can provide personalized advice based on your specific situation, help you understand the requirements of different lenders and guide you through the application process.

The bottom line

Securing a home equity loan after bankruptcy is undoubtedly a challenging task, but it's not impossible. By understanding the timing, actively rebuilding your credit, shopping around for lenders, considering a co-signer, highlighting positive financial changes and seeking professional guidance when you need it you can increase your chances of obtaining a home equity loan that works for you. The process won't be easy, though, so patience and persistence are key elements in your journey toward financial recovery.

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'Savvy Seahorse' Hackers Debut Novel DNS CNAME Trick - Dark Reading

A newly discovered threat actor is running an investment scam through a cleverly designed traffic distribution system (TDS), which takes advantage of the Domain Name System (DNS) to keep its malicious domains ever-changing and resistant to takedowns.

"Savvy Seahorse" impersonates major brand names like Meta and Tesla — and, through Facebook ads in nine languages, lures victims into creating accounts on a fake investing platform. Once victims fund their accounts, the money is funneled to a presumably attacker-controlled account at a Russian state-owned bank.

It's a common sort of scam. According to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), US consumers reported losing 4.6 billion dollars to investment scams in 2023 alone. That's nearly half of the $10 billion reported to have been lost to all forms of scams, making it the most profitable kind out there.

So what separates Savvy Seahorse from the pack is not the character of its ruse but, rather, the infrastructure supporting it.

As outlined in a new report from Infoblox, it operates a TDS with thousands of varied and fluid domains. What keeps the whole system together is a Canonical Name (CNAME) record, an otherwise bland property of DNS which it uses to ensure that, like the ship of Theseus, its TDS can continuously create new and shed old domains without really changing anything at all about the campaign itself.

TDS Attacks Supercharged via DNS

"We normally think of TDS as being in the HTTP world — a connection comes in, I fingerprint your device, and, based on your fingerprinting, I might send you to some malware or scam or I might deny service," explains Renée Burton, head of threat intelligence at Infoblox.

Indeed, entire cybercrime ecosystems have developed around HTTP-based TDS networks in recent years, such as the one operated by VexTrio. HTTP is preferred for all of the metadata it allows attackers to capture from victims: their browser, whether they're on mobile or desktop, and so on.

"Mostly we ignore TDSs," she continues, "and if we do pay attention, we think of it in this narrow framework. But what we have found over the last two and a half years is that, in reality, there's actually a whole concept of traffic distribution systems that actually just exist in DNS."

Indeed, Savvy Seahorse is not new — it's been operating since at least August 2021 — nor is it entirely unique — other groups perform similar DNS-based traffic distribution, but none have thus far been described in security literature. So how does this strategy work?

How Savvy Seahorse Abuses CNAME

In this case, it all comes down to CNAME records.

In DNS, CNAME allows for multiple domains to map to the same base (canonical) domain. For example, the base domain "darkreading.com" might have CNAME records for www.darkreading.com, darkreading.xyz, and many more subdomains. This basic function can help organize an otherwise large, unwieldy, and shifting group of domains owned by legitimate organizations and, evidently, cyberattackers alike.

As Burton explains, "What that CNAME record does for Savvy Seahorse, specifically, is it allows them to scale and move their operations really fast. So every single time someone shuts down one of their phishing sites — which happens pretty frequently, to a lot of them — all they have to do is move to a new one. They have mirrors [of the same content], essentially, all over, and they use the CNAME as the map to those mirrors."

The same works for IPs — should anybody try to shut down Savvy Seahorse's hosting infrastructure, they can just point their CNAME to a different address on a moment's notice. This enables it to not only be resilient, but evasive, advertising any one of its subdomains for only five to ten days on average (probably because it's so easy for them to swap them in and out).

CNAME also frees the threat actor to develop a more robust TDS from the outset.

How CNAME Changes the Game for Attackers & Defenders

Attackers tend to register all of their domains in bulk through a single registrar, and use a single Internet service provider (ISP) to manage them all, simply to avoid having to juggle too much at once. The downside (for them) is that this makes it easy for cyber defenders to discover all of their domains, via their common registration metadata.

Now consider Savvy Seahorse, which has utilized no less than 30 domain registrars and 21 ISPs to host 4,200 domains. No matter how many registrars, ISPs, or domains they use, in the end, they're all associated via CNAME with a single base domain: b36cname[.]site.

But there's a catch here, too. An Achilles' heel. CNAME is both Savvy Seahorse's lodestar, and its single point of failure.

"There are, like, 4,000 bad domain names, but there's only one bad CNAME," Burton points out. To defend against a group like Savvy Seahorse, then, can involve one incredibly effortful path, or one entirely easy one. "All you have to do is block the one base domain [which the CNAME points to] and, from a threat intelligence perspective, you get to kill everything with one blow."

There's no rule that says attackers can't build out malicious networks using many CNAMEs, Burton explains, but "mostly they do aggregate. Even in the very largest systems, we see them aggregate to a much smaller set of CNAMEs."

"Why?" she asks, "Maybe because they aren't getting caught."

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Courtney Love Joins Billie Joe Armstrong to Perform Tom Petty, Cheap Trick Songs in London - Rolling Stone

Green Day’s Billie Joe Armstrong invited Courtney Love onstage to join his cover band, the Coverups, Tuesday night in London, where they performed Tom Petty and Cheap Trick songs at The Garage, a 600-capacity venue.

The band performed a number of covers, including Plimsouls’ “A Million Miles Away” and Ramones’ “I Wanna be Sedated,” alongside songs from the Pretenders, Bryan Adams, and the Clash, as Billboard reports. But the big surprise of the night was to come about halfway through their set.

“Ladies and gentleman, Courtney Love,” the Green Day frontman said, introducing the Coverups’ surprise guest, per fan video.

“Thank you, Billie Joe. My name is Courtney Love – you may not remember me. I’ve been living in a cave in Birmingham for about nine years. We’ll give this a fucking try, right?”

She performed Cheap Trick’s “He’s a Whore,” Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers’ “Even the Losers,” and also Cheap Trick’s classic “Surrender,” according to NME.

Trending

Armstrong and his band also played David Bowie’s “Ziggy Stardust,” Nirvana’s “Drain You,” and the Strokes’ “Last Nite,” along with delivering “Love Is for Losers” from Armstrong’s side project the Longshot.

The Coverups return for a second date in London at 100 Club on Friday. Last month, Green Day released their 14th album, Saviors. Meanwhile, last October as Stereogum reported, Love teased tracks from the follow-up to her first solo album, 2004’s America’s Sweetheart (her last Hole album was 2010’s Nobody’s Daughter). At the time, she said the album would be out around Christmas, though it has yet to arrive.

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Selasa, 27 Februari 2024

A Quantum Trick Implied Eternal Stability. Now It’s Falling Apart. - Quanta Magazine

Introduction

It is a truth of both physics and everyday experience that things fall apart. Ice melts. Buildings crumble. Any object, if you wait long enough, gets mixed up with itself and its surroundings beyond recognition.

But beginning in 2005, a series of breakthroughs made this death march seem optional. In just the right quantum setting, any arrangement of electrons or atoms would stay put for all eternity — even uneven arrangements thrumming with activity. The finding flew in the face of the conventional wisdom that quantum phenomena were fragile things, observable only at extremely low temperatures. It also punched a hole in the foundations of thermodynamics, the venerable branch of physics that explains phenomena like heat and entropy as inevitable consequences of the interplay of vast swarms of particles.

The results came as a shock to physicists like Norman Yao, a graduate student at the time who is now a professor at Harvard University. “Holy hell,” he recalled thinking, using a stronger word than hell. “If this is true in an interacting, many-particle system, then statistical mechanics fails. Thermodynamics fails.”

The notion of a radical new quantum stability spread. It inspired theorists to conjure up a menagerie of new phases of quantum matter such as time crystals — systems that sustain a repeating behavior indefinitely without absorbing energy. And quantum engineers battling the skittishness of qubits to build quantum computers took heart at this indication that their fight was a winnable one.

“In a quantum computer you need to have memory of your initial conditions; otherwise you can’t do anything,” Yao said.

The accumulation of evidence peaked in 2014 with a rigorous mathematical proof that quantum patterns could indeed last forever.

In recent years, however, the promise of eternally stable quantum structures has itself begun to wobble. Such patterns can indeed last for eons, as the breakthrough experiments found. But a debate rages as to whether those eons can truly stretch out to eternity, as many physicists have believed. In the course of dissecting the fundamental nature of quantum fate, the physicists involved have discovered previously unknown quantum phenomena that threaten the stability of great hordes of particles.

“You thought you understood [this idea] really well, and now you don’t,” said Vedika Khemani, a physicist at Stanford University. “That’s fun. There’s a mystery to solve again.”

A Taste of Eternity

An early intimation of quantum eternity was picked up by Phil Anderson, a physicist who would become a legend in his field. In the 1950s, Anderson was at Bell Labs studying what was then bleeding-edge physics — the behavior of electrons inside semiconductors. While trying to understand some puzzling experimental results, he found himself thinking about a more abstract problem.

Was it possible, Anderson wondered, to trap a single quantum particle in place?

It’s easy to trap a classical object, such as a billiard ball. Just surround it with barriers, like the rails of a billiard table. But quantum particles can travel with complete disregard for barriers by “tunneling” through them. The catch is that they can’t travel far. Tunneling becomes hard — that is, exponentially unlikely — the further a particle tries to go. Anderson wondered what surroundings could contain a quantum escape artist.

The secret, he found, was to stick the particle in a “disordered” quantum landscape, one dotted with peaks and valleys. Each location would have a random height, representing a random energy. In a real material, this disorder might come from impurities such as missing atoms or atoms of different elements.

With enough disorder, Anderson concluded, a particle would never tunnel far. In order to tunnel, a particle needs to find a location with a similar energy (or at a similar altitude) to the one it starts out in. And more disorder makes such sites scarcer. By looking further into the landscape, a particle might be able to scout candidate sites at a decent clip. This rate could be quite fast in “higher” dimensions like 2D planes and 3D bricks, where the particle has more options available to it. But the exponential difficulty of reaching those locations would always rise even faster, making tunneling an unlikely proposition.

Tunneling was not enough, Anderson argued in a 1958 paper. A disordered landscape of any dimension would “localize” a particle. The work went essentially unread for years, although it would eventually help secure him a share of the 1977 Nobel Prize in Physics.

While Anderson’s musings had been inspired by electrons in a semiconductor, his framing reveals that he was thinking more abstractly. The anomaly that had motivated him was a mysterious resistance among electrons to a process known as thermalization. He sought to understand more deeply when a system would or would not thermalize. He was not the first physicist to study this phenomenon, but the questions he raised in his work would capture the imaginations of a later generation of physicists.

“It was 50 years ahead of its time,” said David Huse, a physicist at Princeton University.

In everyday language, thermalization is the natural tendency for systems to get mixed up. A new deck of cards quickly loses its original order. A sandcastle winds up as a wet lump of sand. In thermodynamics, this trend is a straightforward consequence of statistics. There are just a few ways to be ordered and a tremendous number of ways to be mixed up, so an initially ordered system is extremely likely to end up mixed.

The key feature of thermalization is that any initial patterns get wiped out by the mixing. Any initial hot spot or concentration of energy, for instance, spreads out until no further spreading is possible. At this point, the system becomes stable and stops noticeably changing — a scenario physicists refer to as thermal equilibrium.

In retrospect, physicists see that Anderson’s work contained the seeds of a rebellion against thermalization. He had shown that a disordered landscape could trap one particle. The key question became: Could it localize many particles? If particles became stuck in place, energy would not spread, and a system would never thermalize. As the opposite of thermalization, localization would represent a whole new type of stability, an unexpected way for quantum patterns of energy to persist forever.

“Knowing whether thermalization is this universal thing that will happen in a closed system, or whether it can completely break down,” said Maissam Barkeshli, a physicist at the University of Maryland, “is one of the most fundamental questions in physics.”

Answering that question, however, would require solving a problem that made Anderson’s Nobel Prize-winning work seem like a warmup. The basic issue is that groups of particles can influence each other in colossally complex ways. Accounting for these interactions proved so complicated that nearly 50 years would elapse between Anderson’s 1958 paper and the first serious attempts to understand localization in many-particle systems, which physicists call many-body localization.

The unbelievable answer that would emerge, half a century later, was that thermalization is not always inevitable. In defiance of thermalization, many-body localization seemed possible.

“It breaks the laws of thermodynamics,” said Wojciech De Roeck, a physicist at KU Leuven in Belgium. “It means that chaos does not always win.”

The Rise of Many-Body Localization

The blockbuster sequel to Anderson’s work came in 2005, when Denis Basko, Igor Aleiner and Boris Altshuler, physicists with affiliations at Princeton and Columbia universities, published a landmark paper that would make their initials instantly recognizable to researchers in the field. In it, BAA studied whether atomic impurities in a metal could localize electrons, trapping them near atoms and transforming the conducting material into an insulator.

In 88 pages of dense math comprising 173 numbered equations and 24 figures (excluding appendices), BAA showed that a messy material could indeed stop groups of electrons in their tracks, much as Anderson had shown that it could stop one particle. Their work effectively launched the study of many-body localization, or MBL.

“It really was a tour de force,” Khemani said. “They showed that MBL is stable in all dimensions.” The work was also impenetrable. Researchers believed it but didn’t understand it well enough to build upon it. “Nobody could really do the BAA calculation other than them,” said Jed Pixley, a condensed matter physicist at Rutgers University.

But BAA’s finding did send ripples across the Princeton campus. Basko told his friend Vadim Oganesyan, who discussed it with his adviser, David Huse. The two of them were already running computer simulations that would allow them to test BAA’s ideas more directly in the more abstract context of thermalization.

In their simulations, Huse and Oganesyan set up chains of quantum particles that could point up or down and could flip their neighbors. When they added more and more disorder, as per the localization recipe, they saw signs that the chains of particles were switching from a thermalizing scenario (where, say, a rapidly flipping particle would spread its energy and start flipping its neighbors) to a nearly localized scenario (where the particle would hold onto its energy). The transition from thermalization to localization at a certain level of disorder looked rather like transitions between phases of matter, such as between liquid and ice, that occur at a certain temperature.

Could MBL qualify as a phase of sorts? Phases hold a special status in physics. They also have a special definition. Crucially, a phase of matter must be stable for an infinitely long time period, and for an infinitely large system. If indeed there was a transition between thermalization and localization, and if localization occurred indefinitely for infinite systems, perhaps the two types of stability could be thought of as phases in their own right.

Oganesyan and Huse couldn’t simulate infinitely long chains for infinitely long times (they could do around a dozen particles), so they weren’t surprised that they saw imperfect signs of localization. But as they made their chains longer, the transition to localization got sharper. Their first work, posted in 2006, teased the intriguing possibility that for infinitely long chains with enough disorder, a localizing phase could exist.

Perhaps more importantly, their simulations were easy to understand. “David made the calculation so anybody could do it,” Pixley said.

Subsequent numerical studies supported the notion that a rugged landscape could localize energy, and physicists began to consider the implications. Deluges of energy, often in the form of heat, wipe out delicate phases of quantum matter. But if sufficiently jagged peaks could halt the spread of energy, quantum structures might survive at effectively any temperature. “You are able to obtain phenomena that we really associate and only understand at zero temperature,” said Anushya Chandran, a physicist at Boston University who studied MBL as a Princeton graduate student.

Introduction

One high-profile quantum structure to grow out of MBL was a pattern in time. Flip one end of a chain of particles at a certain rate, and the entire chain could flip between two configurations without absorbing any of the energy from the flipping. These “time crystals” were an exotic out-of-equilibrium phase of matter, which was possible only because a sufficiently disordered landscape stopped any conceivable arrangement of particles from reaching thermal equilibrium.

“There’s just no analogue,” said Khemani, who came through Princeton around this time and would go on to play a pioneering role in understanding and creating time crystals. “That’s a complete paradigm shift.”

The final piece of the theoretical puzzle fell into place in 2014, when John Imbrie, a mathematical physicist at the University of Virginia, showed that if you could string together an infinitely long chain of particles with enough disorder, any configuration would stay localized. Despite the ability of the particles to interact with their neighbors, they would individually continue to do their own thing forever.

The rigorous mathematical proof, the likes of which are rare in physics, was the result of five years of effort. It all but guaranteed that localization was possible, solidifying its status as a phase. “When you do a mathematical argument, you have to consider every possibility,” Imbrie said. “That’s part of the beauty.”

Around the same time, physicists with labs specializing in manipulating cold atoms were confirming that real particles behaved in much the same way that digital ones did. Modest numbers of atoms separated by mountains of light spread out at a glacial pace, both when arranged in 1D lines and when arrayed in 2D grids.

With a preponderance of experimental, mathematical and numerical evidence, MBL seemed destined to enter the pantheon of phase transitions alongside magnetism and superconductivity. Physicists expected that a wide variety of different systems in different dimensions could flagrantly disregard their presumed thermodynamic fate.

In 2022, the American Physical Society awarded Altshuler, Huse and Aleiner the prestigious Lars Onsager Prize, named for the mathematical physicist who proved that a cartoon model captured the phase transition as a material became magnetized.

But even before the prizes were given out, the idea of infinitely durable structures had begun to fall apart.

The Start of the Wobble

The first tremor came about a year and a half after Imbrie’s proof.

Recall that the transition from thermalization to localization is thought to go down like transitions between familiar phases of matter. When metal magnetizes, for instance, certain properties change at particular rates, described by meticulously calculated equations. Particular values in these equations have certain exponents, like the 2 in x2.

Introduction

For a true phase transition in one dimension, mathematicians had proved that two of these exponents must be greater than 2. But the MBL simulations had found them to be 1 — a major disagreement. In a still-unpublished preprint posted in 2015, Oganesyan and Chandran, together with Christopher Laumann of Boston University, showed that the mismatch was not just a trivial side effect of studying short chains rather than infinite ones. Something more fundamental seemed off.

“They looked into it carefully,” Huse said. “But we couldn’t figure out what was wrong.”

A string of bigger shocks came over the next few years. Imagine the kind of mountainous landscape that would lead to MBL. Now extend that landscape to infinity in all directions. If you randomly explore enough of it, at some point you’re bound to run into an extended flat patch.

Particles in a flat zone can easily find states of similar energy to tunnel to, so they mingle and thermalize. In such a region, energy states abound, increasing the odds that a particle in the neighboring mountains could make contact and become thermalized itself, argued De Roeck of KU Leuven and François Huveneers, who was then at the University of Paris-Dauphine in France. Thus, the flat zone can serve as a source of thermalizing energy.

But could such a tiny patch take down the whole system? The scenario intuitively seemed about as plausible as a hot tub in Denver causing meltdowns in Vail, Breckenridge and Telluride. Physicists didn’t accept it right away. When De Roeck and Huveneers raised the possibility at conferences, their talks provoked angry outbursts from the audience.

“It was a big surprise,” De Roeck said. “A lot of people in the beginning did not believe us.”

In a series of papers starting in 2016, De Roeck, Huveneers and collaborators laid out their case for a process now known as an avalanche. They argued that, unlike a hot tub, what starts as a drop of thermalized particles can snowball into an ocean.

“You have a heat bath, and it recruits neighboring sites into the heat bath,” Imbrie said. “It gets stronger and stronger and pulls in more and more sites. That’s the avalanche.”

The crucial question was whether an avalanche would gain momentum or lose it. With each step, the heat bath would indeed become a bigger and better energy reservoir. But each step also made thermalizing the next site harder. Reminiscent of Anderson’s single-particle localization, the debate came down to a race between two effects: the bath’s improvement versus its difficulty in growing further.

De Roeck and Huveneers argued that avalanches would win in two and three dimensions, because they stockpiled energy states incredibly quickly — at rates related to their rapidly growing area (in 2D) or volume (in 3D). Most physicists came to accept that avalanches in these landscapes were unstoppable, making MBL a remote prospect in sheets or bricks.

But the possibility of MBL in one-dimensional chains survived, because an avalanche sweeping across a line accrues energy states more slowly. In fact, the heat bath grows more powerful at about the same rate at which the difficulty of growth rises. It was a tie. Avalanches might continue in 1D, or they might stop.

Other physicists, meanwhile, grew skeptical that MBL could exist even in a 1D chain. In 2019, a team of Slovenian chaos experts including Tomaž Prosen reanalyzed old numerical data and highlighted the fact that as the landscape got more mountainous, thermalization slowed tremendously but never completely stopped — an inconvenient truth MBL researchers had taken to be an artifact of their small-scale simulations. Anatoli Polkovnikov of Boston University and Dries Sels, now of New York University and the Flatiron Institute, among other researchers, came to similar conclusions. Their arguments directly challenged the central allure of MBL: the promise of eternal life for a quantum sandcastle.

“At the level of theorists talking about MBL,” Chandran said, “there’s an honest-to-God regime where [the thermalization time] is not just age of the universe, and we can’t see it. No, it’s truly infinite.”

A vigorous debate followed, both in the academic literature and in private discussions. Sels and Huse spent hours on Zoom during the depths of the pandemic. They talked past each other at times, but each credits the other with productive insights. The ins and outs of the controversy are extremely technical, and not even the researchers involved can fully articulate all the perspectives. But ultimately, their differences come down to each camp making a different educated — extremely educated — guess as to what you would see if you could watch a chain of particles flip forever.

The two sides still disagree about whether a genuine MBL phase exists in one dimension, but one concrete result of the clash is that it drove researchers to scrutinize the effect that avalanches might have on the presumed onset of MBL.

The skeptical groups “had some very good points, but they took them a little too far,” Huse said. “It really got us motivated.”

Huse, collaborating with a team of MBL veterans including Khemani, cooked up a way to simulate the effect of an avalanche on short chains without actually triggering one. (No one has seen an avalanche, even numerically, because to get a big enough flat spot you might need a chain billions of particles long, Sels estimates, and researchers typically study chains of about 12.) Sels subsequently developed his own avalanche mock-up.

The two groups came to similar conclusions in 2021: The MBL transition, if it existed, required a much more mountainous landscape than researchers had believed. With the ruggedness level previously thought to bring about MBL, thermalization would slow, but would not stop. To give quantum snowmen a fighting chance against avalanches, the landscape would have to be more disordered than Huse and company had suspected. Huse’s group initially found that the mountains would need to be least twice as rugged. Sels’ work pushed that number up to at least six times as rugged, making the mountains more like Himalayas than Rockies. MBL may still occur in those extreme settings, but the theory that had been built around the less rugged transition did indeed have problems.

“We sort of accepted it too thoroughly, and we didn’t look at the subtleties of it,” Huse said.

In the 2021 works, the researchers rewrote and expanded the MBL phase diagram for 1D chains. In Kansas-like flatlands, particles thermalize quickly. In the Rockies, the researchers reclassified the MBL “phase” as a “pre-thermal regime.” This is the seemingly stable regime discovered by BAA, the Princeton simulations, and atomic experiments. But now the researchers had concluded that if one waited an extremely long time — literally billions of years for some setups — particles separated by the Rockies would in fact mingle and thermalize.

Beyond the Rockies lie the Himalayas. What happens there remains an open question. Sels and Prosen are convinced that energy will spread and thermalization will eventually occur, even if it takes eons. Huse and company continue to believe that genuine MBL sets in.

Chief among their reasons for belief in MBL is the 2014 proof. Of the once numerous pillars of evidence supporting the existence of true MBL, Imbrie’s proof is the last one standing. And after a career developing bespoke mathematical tools for just this type of problem, he stands by it.

“It’s not unheard of in mathematics to have an error in a proof,” he said, “but I think I know what I’m doing.”

The proof divides physicists, however, because physicists don’t understand it. It isn’t for lack of trying. Laumann once got Imbrie to teach the proof to him and a handful of researchers over the course of a week in Italy, but they couldn’t follow the steps in detail. That’s not entirely surprising, though, as physicists typically use mathematics in a faster and looser way than mathematicians do. Imbrie’s argument doesn’t depend on any specific level of ruggedness in the landscape, so the recent revisions to the MBL phase diagram in no way undermine it. To determine whether MBL truly exists, researchers will need to buckle down and either find a problem in the proof or verify every line.

Such efforts are underway. Sels and collaborators say they’re finalizing an argument that will contradict Imbrie’s. Meanwhile, De Roeck and Huveneers, the mathematicians who discovered the threat of avalanches, are two years into an effort to rewrite Imbrie’s proof in a more accessible form. De Roeck says they’ve put all the major pieces in place, and so far the logic looks solid.

“MBL, I believe it exists,” De Roeck said. But “we’re doing mathematics here, so any small problem can derail the whole thing.”

Beyond Quantum Angels

In the universe we inhabit, which will itself thermalize in some incomprehensible number of years, permanence is always something of an illusion. Manhattan is sinking under its own weight at 1.6 centimeters per decade. The continents will merge in roughly 250 million years. And while it’s a myth that the bottoms of medieval stained-glass windows have thickened slightly over the centuries, physicists do believe that glass flows over some unknown timescale, likely many billions of years or more.

If MBL proves unstable, a many-body localized system will be at least as durable as any of these examples. So will those quantum phenomena that depend on MBL states. Time crystals, for instance, might lose their textbook designations as “phases of matter,” but they’d still be able to keep ticking for far, far longer than the quantum computers that simulate them (or the humans that operate the computers, for that matter). Many academics do care deeply about the mathematical possibility of defeating thermalization as the beautiful, academic question that it is. But these days, most aren’t losing much sleep over it.

“Maybe it was always angels dancing on the head of a pin,” Chandran said.

Instead, Chandran and others have reveled in the chance to discover a new thermalization-causing phenomenon, one that physicists might actually observe in small systems.

Back in 2018, she and her collaborator Philip Crowley had set out to understand why small chains appeared to slowly thermalize even though they were far too small for flat spots to crop up. The duo determined that groups of particles were occasionally getting lucky and borrowing energy from a neighboring group in the exact amount they needed to flip to a new configuration. They dubbed these coincidences “resonances” and observed how they tended to spread from group to group, leading to a drawn-out thermalization in systems too small for avalanches. In 2020, they showed that resonances can explain the 2015 exponent mismatch and many of the fishy features that have been showing up in numerical experiments, insights that helped Huse and company update the phase diagram for short chains in 2021.

Today, physicists believe that resonances destabilize modest chains with Rockies-level disorder, while avalanches destabilize longer chains at higher levels of disorder.

As Chandran and others improve their simulations and experiments and explore longer, more rugged chains, they wonder what else might lurk in the Himalayas and beyond.

“It seems like there is other physics going on in there,” Huse said. “That would be nicest for me. I like finding new things.”

Editor’s note: A few researchers who appear in this article have received funding from the Simons Foundation, which also funds this editorially independent magazine. Simons Foundation funding decisions have no influence on our coverage. More details available here.

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