One key fact has been lost in the whole debate about whether the inflation surge in the U.S. is here to stay or not: Almost no one expected it to get this high in the first place.
Flash back to a year ago and the inflation estimates for 2021 generated by economists and the bond market were a fraction of today’s 5.4% annual rate. For those who saw the risk of price pressures running hot and a market out of touch, piling into inflation-linked bonds has been a great wager, generating better returns than virtually any other corner of the Treasuries market.
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