WHAT: Euro 2020, Semifinal
LINE: Italy +150 | Draw +220 | Spain +205
KICK OFF: Tuesday, July 6th, 3PM EST
WHERE: Wembley Stadium, London, England
WATCH: ESPN, TUDN, Univision, Univision Deportes
Sportsbooks have Italy (+210) as the second favorite to win Euro 2020 after beating Belgium 2-1 in the Quarterfinals. The first 45 minutes was easily some of the best football we’ve seen at the tournament and maybe this year. Nicoló Barella opened the scoring, and Lorenzo Insigne cut inside to bend the ball past Thibaut Courtois with his trademark finish.
Spain (+255) are the third favorites to win Euro 2020 and made life difficult for themselves in their Quarterfinal clash against Switzerland. 2.94 expected goals, 3 big chances missed, 10 shots on target, 28 attempts in total, 72% possession, and a one-man advantage for 52 minutes, yet they couldn’t find a way past an inspired Yann Sommer.
The game went to penalties, and the standard was pretty poor, with only four of the nine converted. Spain came out on top 3-1 to book their spot in the semifinals.
Hit me up on Twitter @RegistaPicks with your tips for Euro 2020
ITALY vs SPAIN BETTING PREVIEW: PROJECTED XI
One of the tournament’s standout players, Leonardo Spinazzola, will play no further part after rupturing his left Achilles against Belgium. Emerson Palmieri came on for him in the 80th minute and will take his place in the starting lineup.
This will be the only change Roberto Mancini makes to the lineup that started against Belgium. Federico Chiesa and Marco Verratti will keep their places ahead of Domenico Berardi and Manuel Locatelli after impressing in the quarterfinals.
Alessandro Florenzi has fully recovered from his calf injury and is expected to make the bench.
ITALY EURO 2020 ROSTER
MANAGER: Roberto Mancini
GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma (AC Milan), Alex Meret (Napoli), Salvatore Sirigu (Torino)
DEF: Francesco Acerbi (Lazio), Alessandro Bastoni (Inter Milan), Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus), Giorgio Chiellini (Juventus), Giovanni Di Lorenzo (Napoli), Emerson Palmieri (Chelsea), Alessandro Florenzi (PSG), Leonardo Spinazzola (Roma), Rafael Tolói (Atalanta)
MID: Nicolò Barella (Inter Milan), Federico Bernardeschi (Juventus), Federico Chiesa (Juventus), Bryan Cristante (Roma), Jorginho (Chelsea), Manuel Locatelli (Sassuolo), Lorenzo Pellegrini (Roma), Stefano Sensi (Inter Milan), Marco Verratti (PSG)
FWD: Andrea Belotti (Torino), Domenico Berardi (Sassuolo), Ciro Immobile (Lazio), Lorenzo Insigne (Napoli), Giacomo Raspadori (Sassuolo)
ITALY vs SPAIN BETTING PREVIEW: PROJECTED XI
Pablo Sarabia is a doubt after picking up a muscle strain that forced off at halftime. Dani Olmo replaced him, but I wouldn’t start him in this game. I’ve watched RB Leipzig a lot this season, and Olmo is a quality player but very frustrating in front of goal. In the Bundesliga, he scored 5 goals from 77 shots giving him a conversion rate of 6.49%.
Spain’s biggest problem has been their failure to convert chances. They’ve scored 12 goals in 5 matches, but their Expected Goals is 15.6. They need their best finishers on the pitch, and that is why I would go with Gerard Moreno. He has been brilliant for Villarreal this season, scoring 30 goals, providing 11 assists, and helping them win the Europa League.
I think that will be the only change Luis Enrique makes to the side that started against Switzerland.
SPAIN EURO 2020 ROSTER
MANAGER: Luis Enrique
GK: David de Gea (Manchester United), Unai Simón (Athletic Bilbao), Robert Sánchez (Brighton)
DEF: José Gayà (Valencia), Jordi Alba (Barcelona), Pau Torres (Villarreal), Aymeric Laporte (Manchester City), Eric García (Manchester City), Diego Llorente (Leeds United), César Azpilicueta (Chelsea)
MID: Thiago Alcántara (Liverpool), Sergio Busquets (Barcelona), Koke (Atlético Madrid), Marcos Llorente (Atlético Madrid), Dani Olmo (RB Leipzig), Rodri (Manchester City), Fabián Ruiz (Napoli), Pablo Sarabia (PSG), Ferran Torres (Manchester City), Adama Traoré (Wolves)
FWD: Álvaro Morata (Juventus), Gerard Moreno (Villarreal), Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad), Pedri (Barcelona)
ITALY VS SPAIN EURO 2020 BETTING TIPS
I like Spain to advance at +110. Belgium and Austria have shown this Italy side can be gotten at, and it would have been a different story if Romelu Lukaku didn’t miss those two glorious chances in the second half. Italy hasn’t faced a side like Spain who retains possession so well. It will be interesting to see how the Azzurri handle seeing less of the ball and if they can maintain their high press.
The loss of Spinazzola can’t be ignored. His replacement Emerson made 15 appearances for Chelsea this season, and only seven of them were starts. He’s clearly not ready for the biggest game of his career, and Spain will target him.
If you’re looking for more value, back Spain to do it in 90 minutes.
BETTING TIP: Spain To Advance +110 | Spain Money Line +205
No side has created more chances than Spain, and they have the highest amount of Expected Goals at 15.6. I think the pressure of this game will bring the best out of their frontline, and we will see at least a couple of goals from them.
BETTING TIP: Spain Total Goals Over 1.5 +215
WHERE TO BET EURO 2020 IN THE US
In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in more than two dozen states. You can bet online in some states, but only in-person betting is allowed in most of them.
DraftKings Sportsbook is available in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia.
FanDuel Sportsbook is available in Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia.
https://ift.tt/36tPCJL
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