Forgive me for stating the bleedin’ obvious but shouldn’t defending champion Carlos Ortiz be shorter than 35/1 for this week’s Houston Open at Memorial Park?
Not only did the Mexican play this difficult public course better than anyone 12 months ago when the tournament was rescheduled, courtesy of Covid, from its traditional early slot to November but he arrives on the wings of a second-place share In Mayakoba.
You say last week was a home game for the 30-year-old from Guadalajara and this one isn’t.
It’s true that having the crowd rooting for you is often worth a shot or a “lucky” bounce. Yet it can work the opposite way.
There’s nothing worse than trying TOO hard when your game isn’t quite up to taking on the big shots.
Ortiz was certainly up to the pressure last week and as he went to college in North Texas and has lived in Dallas for a few years now, you could call this a home game too.
He was an 80/1 chance last week when delivering Golf Monthly punters a tasty 20/1 place dividend with Bet365, the only firm with that price - mostly 60/1 elsewhere - and paying a quarter the odds a place rather than a fifth.
With a daily 2000 crowd limit last year, the support level was mute compared with the buzz we shall be a part of this time.
Ortiz, who was winning at the 118th attempt, thinks he will have even more support now - “I have both Latino and Texan fans over here”.
After a giant make-over by famed architect Tom Doak (with assistance from four-time Major winner Brooks Koepka), the new-look Memorial Park was unveiled for last year’s tournament and given the thumbs-up by its visitors.
At 7432 yards this stiff parkland test is long for a par 70 and so it proved 12 months ago when the winning score was only 13 under, a far cry from the birdie-fests we’ve been watching recently.
As the forecast is mostly for clear blue skies, expect four dry if cool days and no weather delays.
I’m also going in again with young Matt Wolff who opened with a 61 at Mayakoba, was still leading at halfway, blew it in a disastrous third round, only to come roaring back on Sunday to sneak into fifth and give Golf Monthly followers a nice 12.5-1 place return.
The 22-year-old won’t be 50/1 for this intermediate type of tournament for a good while, certainly not in Houston where he’s quoted at half last week’s odds after finishing second and fifth on his two latest outings.
Stick with him, remember how young he is but forget the poor form figures that preceded and followed his Masters disqualification - he carelessly signed for the wrong score.
Wolff was so mentally in the wrong place at that time he took a two-month break to sort himself out.
Looking at the improved efforts since the new season teed off, the hiatus seems to have done Matt no end of good.
This is his first time at Memorial Park but so it was at Mayakoba and it didn’t stop him shooting a 61 on his first round there.
Sam Burns, 25, is another young talent I want on my side.
The man from Louisiana followed Sanderson Farms victory in Mississippi with fifth in the CJ Cup, yet I’m surprised to see him quoted 16/1 favourite.
Admittedly he looks a force to be reckoned with at every level and as Koepka, fifth here last time, has yet to convince this campaign and the usually metronomic Sungjae Im had a rare flop last year, Burns should at least be competitive.
His Memorial Park vibe is strong after placing seventh on first sight of the place last year, while on the same mark was Tyrrell Hatton who looks Europe’s best hope.
Runner-up in his beloved Dunhill Links, he was contending in the CJ Cup for three days until he ran out of petrol.
Tylor Gooch doesn’t have the aura of some of his rivals but the results are there, 4-11-5-11 for his last four starts.
Fourth to Ortiz last year, he should contend again and 33/1 is a fair price.
Patrick Reed, who flew from mid-division to grab a share of second money in Bermuda, is always to be feared as is course debutant Scottie Scheffler who impressed at Mayakoba and was heading for something better than fourth, his final position, until the odd mistake crept in.
At longer odds, try Lanto Griffin, sixth in Las Vegas and seventh at the Zozo.
Pity he was outside the top 50 on his Memorial Park bow a year ago but he arrives in better nick now.
He conquered Houston two years ago but that was on a different course.
Houston Open Golf Betting Tips 2021 - advised bets
New Customers Only. 18+ T&C Apply BeGambleAware
Article From & Read More ( Houston Open Golf Betting Tips 2021 - Golf Monthly )https://ift.tt/3o7COku
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar