All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for today's playoff games
All-In On Tatum: The last time the Celtics' season was on the line, they went down swinging with Jayson Tatum dominating the game plan. Tonight shouldn't be any different. We saw a glimpse of the uptick in Tatum's usage on Wednesday, a game in which he took a shot every 87 seconds of court time (more than a 29% spike from his rate in this series. The numbers for his props are high, but might not be high enough, especially in the non-scoring categories. You shouldn't hesitate to take some of the overs on Tatum's props.
Now What?: The Grizzlies beat the brakes off of the Warriors Wednesday night and their pace was nearly identical to when they have had Ja Morant this postseason. With no player emerging as a go-to option as five different Grizzlies took 10-to-13 shots from the field. With all of the fireworks in this series, it is possible that we are overlooking a breakout game from Tyus Jones. Jones has 40 points, 14 assists and just one turnover in 65 minutes over the past two games without Morant. He was an afterthought in this series, but now has the ball in his hands plenty and his prop market has been slow to adjust. Memphis has embraced variance, meaning usage will be determined in-game. But it's pretty clear that the Grizzlies have identified Jones as the driver of their offense, making him worth a look in both Daily Fantasy contests and prop markets.
-- Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Breaking down today's games
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
7:30 p.m ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Line: Bucks (-1.5)
Money line: Bucks (-125), Celtics (+105)
Total: 211 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.6 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (54.8%)
Questionable: None (Knee)
Ruled Out: Khris Middleton (Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factors in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Notable: The Bucks are 2-4 ATS at home this postseason and have failed to cover six of their past eight overall in front of their fans.
Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 41.5 points + assists + rebounds. Ime Udoka will likely lean heavily on Jaylen Brown and Tatum with the Celtics on the brink of elimination. Tatum may have his best game of the series. He's averaged 25 PPG, 5.2 APG and 5.8 RPG so far this series while shooting a dismal 39.1% from the field. As long as Tatum truly prioritizes his shot selection and locks in, the Bucks will struggle to guard him. -- Eric Moody
Best bet: Jaylen Brown over 23.5 points. Tatum and Brown have each scored 25 or more points in the same playoff game six times, which is tied for the most in Celtics postseason history by a pair of teammates. They'll do it again tonight. This series has seen Brown average 22.6 PPG. The Celtics need a big game from him. -- Moody
Best bet: Al Horford over 12.5 rebounds + assists. For the Celtics, Horford's defense and facilitation abilities will be crucial in this game. This series he has averaged 10.6 RPG and 4.0 APG. Horford could surpass those per game averages in Game 6. -- Moody
Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 53.5 points + assists + rebounds.
This is a huge number, but I'm expecting Antetokounmpo to have a monster game. He always shows up for moments like these. Last season, in the two elimination games against the Nets and the elimination game with the Suns in the NBA Finals, Antetokounmpo averaged 40 points, 14.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists. In the three most recent games of this series, all crucial games in a wire-thin series, Giannis has averaged 38.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists. He went over 53.5 PAR in five of the six games cited, including the last three in a row in this series. -- Andre Snellings
Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 47.5 points + rebounds
Antetokounmpo is the best player in the world. Win, lose, or draw he is going to deliver a dynamic performance in these meaningful games. With an opportunity to close out the Celtics on his home floor, I fully expect Antetokounmpo to continue his heater. Giannis has cleared this threshold in each of the last three games of this series, averaging 38.7 PPG and 13.7 RPG in those contests. He has played 40-plus minutes in each of the past two games and I see no reason other than foul trouble or injury that he won't do so again in Game 6. -- Tyler Fulghum
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
10:00 p.m ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Line: Warriors (-8)
Money line: Warriors (-400), Grizzlies (+310)
Total: 217.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.1 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (53.3%)
Questionable: Otto Porter Jr. (Foot)
Ruled Out: Ja Morant, Andre Iguodala (Neck), Gary Payton II (Elbow)
Note: BPI numbers factors in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Notable: Like rooting for points? The Grizzlies are 30-15-2 ATS this season when the over hits, something that very well could happen tonight when you consider that the winning team in Memphis playoff games this season is averaging a cool 118.4 points per game.
Best bet: Stephen Curry over 27.5 points. The Warriors will play with more heart and energy after their appalling performance in Game 5 in order to close out this series on their home court. Curry finished with 14 points while shooting 40% from the field. The Warriors won't underestimate the Grizzlies tonight. During this season's playoffs, Curry has averaged 28.4 PPG at home. Expect him to rebound tonight. -- Moody
Best bet: Klay Thompson over 21.5 points. Thompson was very vocal with his teammates after getting clobbered by the Grizzlies in Game 5. We'll see a totally different Warriors team on Friday night. During his career, Thompson has averaged 19.4 PPG at home in the playoffs. -- Moody
Best bet: Jaren Jackson Jr. over 17.5 points Jackson is too big for the small-ball that the Warriors like to run, and he's taken advantage of the mismatches with one of his best scoring stretches of the season. In this series, Jackson has averaged 20.4 PPG, and he's scored 21 points in back-to-back games. The risk is that Jackson still has a penchant for foul trouble, and if he's not in the game he can't score, but if he can stay on the court he's got a great chance to put another big mark on the board. -- Snellings
Best bet: Warriors 2H (-3.5)
Memphis' 39-point shellacking of the Warriors in Game 5 was one of the most surprising "no-shows" I can remember in NBA Playoff history. Perhaps I'm foolish for doing so, but I will just erase that one game from my memory and rely on the years of data I have indicating this team can rise to the occasion in the postseason. Memphis is clearly giving the Warriors fits, but without Ja Morant I struggle to see how they extend this series now that Game 6 is back in San Francisco. The Warriors are a different animal when they play at home and I HAVE to imagine that they are thoroughly embarrassed by what just happened Wednesday night. Memphis may hang tight for the first couple of quarters, but ultimately the championship pedigree of this team prevails in the second half and they close the series out. -- Fulghum
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