ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for October 26 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
What you need to know for Wednesday's games
What's In A Number?: It's a full slate tonight and there are plenty of teams favored by over five points. Given the star driven nature of this league, the inclination may be to assume that these big favorites come through more often than not. Be careful. Last season, underdogs actually held a winning ATS record when the number crossed five points (51.5% cover rate). In games like that, over tickets were the winning side 53.9% of the time.
Detroit Basketball: Teams playing at home on the second night of a back-to-back were 73-100-2 ATS last season. That said, the Pistons' implied total is flirting with 110 points and when such teams (home and on a back-to-back) got to that threshold, they were 50-37-2 ATS. Speaking of Motown, the Pistons aren't off to a stellar start to the season in regards to record, but they are getting strong play from sharpshooter Bojan Bogdanovic (52% available in ESPN leagues). As the veteran presence in the Pistons' otherwise young rotation, Bogdanovic is slashing for 20.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 3.8 3PG on stellar shooting percentages.
Turner Time: The Pacers upgraded Myles Turner to questionable for tonight's matchup against the Bulls. Turner rolled his ankle landing on a ball boy (no really) before the team's opener last week, so it's a good sign that his designation has changed. Even if he's not active tonight, it's undeniably time for Turner to be universally rostered (available in 18% of leagues). Beyond Turner, it's still worth adding Indiana's Jalen Smith (48%) and high-usage rookie Bennedict Mathurin (42%). The Bulls, for their part, are allowing the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to power forwards and fifth-most to small forwards.
DJS in DFS: The Hornets won't have LaMelo Ball in the lineup as they enter Madison Square Garden to face the Knicks. Terry Rozier is also dealing with an ankle injury and is listed as doubtful for tonight's contest. With the team's two most ball-dominant talents off the floor, it looks like another great spot for Dennis Smith Jr. (77% available). "DSJ" has posted 18.7 points, 6.5 assists, 2.3 3-pointers and a whopping 3.3 steals per 36 minutes for Charlotte this season. Validating his per-36 pattern is the fact Smith played 34 minutes in relief of his two ailing backcourt mates in a recent win over Atlanta. Kelly Oubre Jr. (34%) just posted a 24-point double-double in that win over the Hawks and is likely to continue to start with Ball and Rozier on the mend.
Rookie Rockets: Houston won't have centers Alperen Sengun or Bruno Fernando against Utah tonight due to respective ailments. The lack of size and rim protection for Houston is a good sign for key frontcourt Jazz contributors Lauri Markkanen and Kelly Olynyk (76% available). For the Rockets, this is a solid opportunity for rookie Jabari Smith Jr. (44%) as both a rebounder and rim protector. The Auburn product has collected at least seven rebounds in three of his four NBA contests and is already flashing elite swat upside with multiple blocks in three straight. With Houston down to Usman Garuba as its lone true center, it's likely we see Smith and fellow rookie Tari Eason (91%) get extended run as the team deploys small-ball lineups in Salt Lake City on Wednesday.
-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Game of the night
Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks
7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Line: Bucks (-3.5)
Money line: Bucks (-165), Nets (+140)
Total: 233.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.3 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (58.8%)
Ruled Out: Seth Curry (ankle), Markieff Morris (personal)
Note: BPI numbers factors in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Brook Lopez (available in 71.5% of leagues). Lopez is playing at a high level to start the season, and has been making his mark both inside and outside at both ends of the court. The Nets play a traditional big man in Nicolas Claxton, which should allow Lopez to stay on the court, but the Nets' bigs don't have the size to keep Lopez (or Giannis, for that matter) from doing what they want to in the paint. Lopez should be able to have his way on offense, against a Nets squad that has given up 130 points in two of their three games. -- Andre Snellings
Best bet: Bucks -3.5. The Bucks have been one of the best offensive teams in the league so far this season. Milwaukee ranks sixth in the league in effective field goal percentage (56.5%). and should offensive success against a Nets team that plays weak defense. Meanwhile the Bucks have allowed the least amount of points per 100 possessions. I am taking Milwaukee to cover the spread -- Eric Moody
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
10 p.m. ET on ESPN, Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
Line: Nuggets (-5.5)
Money line: Nuggets (-220), Lakers (+180)
Total: 229.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.5 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (75.3%)
Questionable: Michael Porter Jr., Jeff Green
Probable: Anthony Davis (back), LeBron James (foot)
Doubtful: Russell Westbrook (hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factors in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Lakers +6. I'm tempted to stay away from this game, but anecdotally, when healthy, Anthony Davis has had his way in his matchup against Nikola Jokic. Jokic is clearly the fulcrum upon which the Nuggets move, and if the newly minted center Davis is able to in any way neutralize or counter him, it would bode well for this to be a competitive game. The Lakers are desperately trying to get into the win column, and despite their 0-3 record, they've been competitive in every game and have lost their last two by a combined eight points. By taking the points, I'm saying that I believe the Lakers will keep this game close. -- Snellings
Best bet: Nikola Jokic over 12.5 rebounds. Jokic has averaged 11 rebounds per game over the last seven seasons. He faces the Lakers on Wednesday night. This season, Los Angeles is allowing 52.7 RPG, a league high. -- Moody
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio
Line: Cavaliers (-8.8)
Money line: Cavaliers (-365), Magic (+285)
Total: 214.0 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.5 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (85%)
Ruled Out: Darius Garland (eye), Dylan Windler (ankle) Moritz Wagner (ankle), Markelle Fultz (toe), Jalen Suggs (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factors in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Kevin Love (rostered in 16.4% of ESPN leagues) should have success against the Magic on Wednesday night. Through three games, he has 9.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG, and 2.0 APG. For fantasy managers in deeper formats, Love is an excellent streamer. -- Moody
Fantasy Streamer: Terrence Ross (87.9% available) has started every game this season and scored in double figures in three of them. He's got a larger role while Jalen Suggs is sidelined, and is averaging 15.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG and 2.8 3PG in 33.8 MPG on the season. -- Snellings
Best bet: Donovan Mitchell over 40.5 points + assists + rebounds. Mitchell has been breathtaking so far this season averaging 33.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 5.3 RPG. Darius Garland returned to on-court activity on Tuesday, but is not expected to play until Friday. Mitchell will continue to see all the usage he can handle against the Magic, who rank 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions. -- Moody
Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
Line: Hawks (-7)
Money line: Hawks (-305), Pistons (+240)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 226.2 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (77.8%)
Questionable: Justin Holiday (illness)
Ruled Out: Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factors in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Isaiah Stewart is available in 76.2% of leagues, and is a walking double-double. He's averaging 11.5 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.0 3PG and 0.8 SPG in 28.3 MPG this season. -- Snellings
Best bet: Dejounte Murray over 35.5 points + assists + rebounds. Murray and Trae Young have shown they can coexist in Atlanta. Through three games, Murray averages 19.7 PPG, 8.3 APG, and 7.3 RPG. It will be a very favorable matchup for Murray against a Pistons team that ranks 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions and allows opponents to shoot 56.9% from the field. Jaden Ivey will have his work cut out for him defending Murray. -- Moody
Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
Line: Knicks (-7.5)
Money line: Knicks (-320), Hornets (+250)
Total: 225 points
BPI Projected Total: 228 points
BPI Win%: Knicks (65%)
Doubtful: Terry Rozier (ankle), Cody Martin (quad)
Ruled Out: LaMelo Ball (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 5.5 assists. For some reason, Brunson's assist totals seem to be evaluated on his production last season in Dallas more-so than what he's done thus far with the Knicks. Through three games, Brunson is averaging 7.0 APG and has gone over 5.5 assists in all three contests. -Snellings
Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Line: 76ers (-1)
Money line: 76ers (-115), Raptors (-105)
Total: 211.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 217.6 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (58.4%)
Questionable: De'Anthony Melton, Scottie Barnes (ankle)
Doubtful: Otto Porter Jr. (hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: James Harden over 22.5 points. I've been very vocal for months now, with my belief that Harden was not healthy nor in shape when he was traded to the 76ers last season. I've also been vocal that I believed he would be both this season, and thus likely to play much better than expected. And, thus far, he has. Harden's gone well over 22.5 points in three of four games thus far, and is averaging 26.8 PPG on the season. -- Snellings
Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago, Illinois
Line: Bulls (-7.5)
Money line: Bulls (-320), Pacers (+250)
Total: 234.0 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.4 points
BPI Win%: Bulls (64.6%)
Questionable: Myles Turner (ankle)
Ruled Out: Daniel Theis (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: DeMar DeRozan over 25.5 points. DeRozan has scored 25 or more points in three of his first four games this season. The Pacers have allowed small forwards to score 25.5 PPG and rank 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions. DeRozan should feast against the Pacers defense tonight. --Moody
San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Line: Timberwolves (-9)
Money line: Timberwolves (-420), Spurs (+320)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 238 points
BPI Win%: Timberwolves (77.1%)
Doubtful: Austin Rivers (hip)
Ruled Out: Kyle Anderson (back)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Joshua Primo (rostered in 1.1% of ESPN leagues) is expected to start on Wednesday in place of Devin Vassell, who is dealing with a knee injury. Primo has averaged 7.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, and 4.5 APG. With 118.5 points allowed per 100 possessions, the Rockets are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. -- Moody
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Line: Jazz (-7.0)
Money line: Jazz (-285), Rockets (+228)
Total: 233.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.1 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (83.5%)
Questionable:, Jae'Sean Tate (ankle)
Ruled Out: TyTy Washington Jr. (knee), Alperen Sengun (illness)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET, Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
Line: Heat (-2.5)
Money line: Heat (-135), Blazers (+115)
Total: 219.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.2 points
BPI Win%: Heat (53.2%)
Questionable: Victor Oladipo (knee),
Ruled Out: Omer Yurtseven (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Analytics Edge
BPI's highest projected totals
1. Utah Jazz (124.1 points)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (123.3 points)
3. Milwaukee Bucks (119.9 points)
BPI's lowest projected totals
1. Orlando Magic (106.6 points)
2. Detroit Pistons (108.9 points)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (110.0 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (85.0%)
2. Utah Jazz (83.5%)
3. Atlanta Hawks (78.4%)
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