ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for December 28th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Setting Sun: At a glance, the Suns vs. Wizards line looks short and an obvious Phoenix play, even with star Devin Booker highly unlikely to play. Not so fast! The Suns have failed to cover three straight games on zero days rest (they won in Memphis last night), coming up a total of 31.5 points below expectation in those games. If you're inclined to bet totals, three of their four games on no rest this season have gone under, as have nine of 14 Washington covers this season.
Money On Milwaukee:The Bucks opened as 4.5-point favorites and that should set off alarms in your head. We already know that Khris Middleton will not play, but as long as Jrue Holiday is on the court (probable), a small favorite is right where you want Milwaukee. Since the beginning of last season, they are 17-12-1 ATS (58.6%) when installed as a favorite of less than five points, including a mark of 8-3 ATS when in such a spot with a total north of 226 points.
No D in Detroit: The defense could well be missing in Detroit tonight with the Pistons and Magic set to tip off as basically a coin toss game. When the Magic are involved in a game with a spread short of four points, overs have cashed six of nine games and when the Pistons are in such a spot, three of four. You're dealing with smaller samples, but the Magic are just 3-6 ATS in such spots, so if you're looking for a lean, the home team might be the play.
Motown Momentum: Speaking of the Pistons, two young rising talents remain underappreciated by the fantasy hoops market. Rookie center Jalen Duren is fourth in the league in rebounding since joining the Pistons' starting lineup earlier this month and yet is a free agent in well over 80% of ESPN leagues. We've endorsed Killian Hayes plenty of times, but he's still rostered in around a quarter of leagues despite flashing impressive offensive growth. Just last night, for instance, Hayes posted 18 points, 10 assists, and five boards in an overtime loss to the Clippers. Fire up both tonight in a plus matchup with the Magic.
Replacing a King: The Kings' Domantas Sabonis will reportedly try to play through a fractured right thumb, which seems like a challenging task. Sabonis missed last night's loss to the Nuggets and his status for tonight's rematch with Denver appears in doubt. Sacramento's stretch forward Trey Lyles (99% available) came off the pine to produce a double-double in 24 minutes on Tuesday and could be busy again this evening. For those in deeper leagues, Richaun Holmes also resurfaced with a strong line last night.
Knowing Naz: The Timberwolves won't have Karl-Anthony Towns in the lineup tonight against the Pelicans due to a right calf strain, pushing Naz Reid into an important frontcourt role against a large New Orleans frontcourt. Reid has averaged 17.7 points and 7.3 boards over his last six outings and has tried to approximate Towns' floor-stretching by sinking two 3-pointers per game over this sample. Reid, meanwhile, is a free agent in 95% of ESPN leagues.
-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Breaking down Wednesday's slate
Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
Line: Magic (-1.5)
Money line: Magic (-125), Pistons (+105)
Total: 229.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.9 points
BPI Win%: Magic (51.8%)
Questionable: Marvin Bagley III
Ruled Out: Jalen Suggs
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Isaiah Stewart (rostered in 17.7% of ESPN leagues). Stewart is a solid streamer with Marvin Bagley III ruled out for Wednesday's game. He is coming off of a 50-point fantasy performance against the Clippers on Monday and faces a Magic team that ranks 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions. After Jalen Duren's move to center, Stewart is flourishing as a stretch big for the Pistons. -- Eric Moody
Fantasy streamer: Jalen Duren (rostered in 17.1% of ESPN leagues). Duren is someone who should be rostered in a higher percentage of leagues. He has scored 30 or more fantasy points in five of his past seven games. Duren is a great streamer if you need points and rebounds in category formats. -- Moody
Best bet: Over 229.5. The Pistons rank 26th in points scored per 100 possessions but the Magic are not far behind at 24th. Although neither team is strong offensively, Detroit and Orlando are both underwhelming on the defensive side. This leads me to believe they can surpass the total. Pistons games have gone over the total in four of their past five games while the Magic have gone over the total in four consecutive games. -- Moody
Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington, Washington D.C.
Line: Suns (-2.5)
Money line: Suns (-140), Wizards (+118)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 238.9 points
BPI Win%: Wizards (50.1%)
Questionable: Bradley Beal
Ruled Out: Cameron Payne, Devin Booker, Landry Shamet
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Duane Washington Jr. (rostered in 0.3% of ESPN leagues). Washington is firmly on the streaming radar after Chris Paul left Tuesday's night game early with a left leg injury. With Cameron Payne is also still out for the Suns, Washington finished the game with a season-high 24 minutes and 48 fantasy points. -- Eric Moody
Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Line: Nets (-6.5)
Money line: Nets (-260), Hawks (+210)
Total: 235 points
BPI Projected Total: 240.7 points
BPI Win%: Nets (63%)
Questionable: Clint Capela, De'Andre Hunter, Trae Young, Seth Curry
Ruled Out: Joe Harris
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: De'Andre Hunter (rostered in 13.7% of ESPN leagues). Hunter is set to play Wednesday night against the Nets after sitting out last night. He has scored 24 or more fantasy points in four of his past seven games and faces a Brooklyn team that ranks fifth in points scored per 100 possessions this season. -- Eric Moody
Best bet: Nets -6.5. The Nets have won nine consecutive games and 13 of their past 14. Brooklyn is also 6-1 ATS in their past seven games and the Hawks could be without Trae Young. Atlanta is a disappointing 1-4 ATS over their past five home games. -Eric Moody
Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
Line: Heat (-8)
Money line: Heat (-345), Lakers (+270)
Total: 225.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.7 points
BPI Win%: Lakers (72.7%)
Questionable: LeBron James, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler
Ruled Out: Juan Toscano-Anderson, Anthony Davis
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago, Illinois
Line: Bucks (-4.5)
Money line: Bucks (-195), Bulls (+162)
Total: 232 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.6 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (52.2%)
Probable: Jrue Holiday
Questionable: Alex Caruso
Ruled Out: Khris Middleton, Javonte Green, Derrick Jones Jr.
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Pat Connaughton (rostered in 0.8% of ESPN leagues). Connaughton started his first game of the season on Sunday and finished with 33 fantasy points. He will likely start again on Wednesday night against the Bulls with Khris Middleton out. -- Moody
Fantasy streamer: Patrick Williams (rostered in 4.6% of ESPN leagues). Williams is on the streaming radar with Derrick Jones Jr. doubtful for Wednesday night. Williams should be able to stuff the stat sheet for managers in category formats. He's scored 23 or more fantasy points while playing 37 or more minutes in three consecutive games. -- Moody
Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 43.5 points + rebounds. Antetokounmpo has averaged 29.4 points and 12.7 rebounds over his past 10 games against the Bulls. He faces a Chicago defense on Wednesday that has allowed the seventh most points and eighth most rebounds per game this season to power forwards. -- Moody
Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans
8 p.m. ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Line: Pelicans (-6.5)
Money line: Pelicans (-260), Timberwolves (+210)
Total: 234 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.9 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (61%)
Questionable: Herbert Jones, Dyson Daniels, Trey Murphy III
Ruled Out: Taurean Prince, Kyle Anderson, Jordan McLaughlin, Karl-Anthony Towns, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Naz Reid (rostered in 4.7% of ESPN leagues) is a viable streamer with Taurean Prince ruled out for Wednesday's game. Reid has scored 27 or more fantasy points in each of the past four games while playing 25 or more minutes. -- Eric Moody
Fantasy streamer: Jose Alvarado (rostered in 5.5%) Alvarado is once again on the streaming radar with Herbert Jones questionable for Wednesday's game. Alvarado has averaged 17.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 5.8 assists per 40 minutes and faces a Timberwolves team that allows a high number of points, rebounds and steals to point guards. -- Moody
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, California
Line: Jazz (-3.5)
Money line: Jazz (-165), Warriors (+140)
Total: 233 points
BPI Projected Total: 239.3 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (67%)
Questionable: Klay Thompson
Ruled Out: Kelly Olynyk, Andrew Wiggins, JaMychal Green, Stephen Curry
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
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