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Rabu, 01 Februari 2023

Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Wednesday - ESPN

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Feb. 1 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.


What you need to for Wednesday's games

As we sit just eight days away from the league's trade deadline, change is on the horizon. The trade deadline in ESPN leagues is Feb. 17. It's time to get more aggressive in managing your roster(s). In just a few weeks, you'll only have the waiver wire or free agency as a talent source.

Sportsbooks are already producing actionable information, such as O.G. Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors listed at -500 on DraftKings to be dealt by next week. With 84% implied odds, it's safe to say the market thinks he'll have a new jersey soon. Teammates Gary Trent Jr. (-200) and Fred VanVleet (-150) are the next shortest odds offered, suggesting Toronto will be busy.

For fantasy gamers, this might mean adding Toronto's Precious Achiuwa ahead of tonight's matchup with the Utah Jazz; he's averaging 34.2 MPG to go with 17.2 PPG and 10.5 RPG over his last six games and is a free agent in 83% of leagues. His leap in opportunities appears more sustainable ahead of the deadline. Stashing the likes of Malachi Flynn or making trade offers for Scottie Barnes could prove savvy. As the reports and rumors fly, be ready to act.

-- Jim McCormick


Games of the night

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts

Records (Against the Spread)
Nets: 31-19 (26-24-0)
Celtics: 36-15 (25-25-1)

Line: Celtics (-8)
BPI Projection: Celtics (119.3-112.2)
Money Line: Nets (+278), Celtics (-355)
BPI Projected winner: Celtics (74.6%)
Total: 226.5 points BPI Projected Total: 231.5 points

Injury Report:
Nets: Yuta Watanabe, (GTD - Back); Ben Simmons, (OUT - Knee); T.J. Warren, (OUT - Lower Leg); Kevin Durant, (OUT - Knee)
Celtics: Robert Williams III, (GTD - Ankle); Marcus Smart, (OUT - Ankle); Danilo Gallinari, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Royce O'Neale (available in 71.8% of leagues) O'Neale will have a large role by default, with three frontcourt starters out for this game. O'Neale has played well in the last couple games, averaging 14.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.5 3PG, 3.0 APG, 1.5 SPG and 0.5 BPG in 32.0 MPG in his last two outings. -- Snellings

Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 38.5 total points + rebounds. Tatum has averaged 34.3 PPG and 11.7 RPG in his last seven games, going over 38.5 total points + rebounds in six of those seven games. On Wednesday, he faces a Nets team that is missing three frontcourt starters and doesn't have a defender capable of slowing him down. -- Snellings

Trend: Five of the Boston Celtics' past six games have been decided by four or fewer points, a stretch that includes three overtime contests. The C's are an underwhelming 9-12 ATS this season when favored at home by more than six points and the Nets are 9-3 ATS as a road underdog this season. -- Kyle Soppe


Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns
10 p.m. ET on ESPN, Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona

Records (Against the Spread)
Hawks: 25-26 (22-27-2)
Suns: 27-25 (28-24-0)

Line: Suns (-1.5)
BPI Projection: Suns (115.9-114.9)
Money Line: Hawks (+105), Suns (-125)
BPI Projected winner: Suns (53.4%)
Total: 232 points BPI Projected Total: 230.8 points

Injury Report:
Hawks: Trae Young, (GTD - Ankle)
Suns: Devin Booker, (OUT - Groin); Jae Crowder, (OUT - Not Injury Related); Cameron Payne, (OUT - Foot); Landry Shamet, (OUT - Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Chris Paul under 17.5 points. Paul has hit the over here in three straight games but it wasn't that long ago he was struggling to score for the Suns. And despite getting torched by Damian Lillard for 42 points on Monday, the Hawks are a Top 10 defense when it comes to slowing down opposing point guards. Paul is due for a quiet offensive scoring night and if Dejounte Murray gets the assignment of guarding him, it should happen. Just realize there's also a possibility that Murray could be assigned to Mikal Bridges, which would leave Trae Young covering CP3. And that wouldn't be an ideal situation. But the 37-year-old point guard is due to slow down offensively, either way. -- Steve Alexander

Best bet: Dejounte Murray over 20.5 points. Murray popped for a career-high 40 points in his last game, but Trae Young (probable, ankle) sat out that game. Young is likely back on Wednesday, but Murray is still a good bet to produce. Murray has averaged 26.2 PPG in his last nine games, most of which next to Young, and scored at least 20 points in eight of those nine games. -- Snellings


Breaking down the rest of the slate

Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers
7 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Records (Against the Spread)
Magic: 20-31 (29-20-2)
76ers: 32-17 (26-22-1)

Line: 76ers (-8.5)
BPI Projection: 76ers (121.5-110.5)
Money Line: Magic (+278), 76ers (-355)
BPI Projected winner: 76ers (84.3%)
Total: 231 points BPI Projected Total: 232 points

Injury Report:
Magic: Wendell Carter Jr., (GTD - Foot); Chuma Okeke, (OUT - Knee)
76ers: Joel Embiid, (GTD - Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Joel Embiid over 44.5 points + rebounds. Embiid has been listed as questionable for five straight games and has played in three straight despite his sore left foot. Just make sure he's a go tonight. These same Magic snapped the Sixers' seven-game winning streak with an unlikely 119-109 win in Philly on Monday and, yes, Embiid and James Harden both played in that one. Tonight's game is also in Philadelphia and the Sixers will be looking for revenge. Embiid racked up 41 total points and rebounds in Monday's loss and knows he needs to do a bit more tonight. It's not hard to imagine Embiid lighting Orlando up for a line similar to what he had against Nikola Jokic and Denver on Saturday, when he went off for 47 points and 18 rebounds, assuming he plays. -- Alexander

Trend: The 76ers blew a 21-point first quarter lead against the Magic Monday night, snapping their seven-game win streak in rather ugly fashion. Both teams face off again tonight and you can bank on offensive adjustments for Philadelphia. Over their past three games playing against the same team in consecutive games, the 76ers have seen their PPG jump 25.4 points from the first meeting. -- Kyle Soppe


Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies
7 p.m. ET, FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee

Records (Against the Spread)
Blazers: 24-26 (25-24-1)
Grizzlies: 32-18 (24-23-3)

Line: Grizzlies (-5.5)
BPI Projection: Grizzlies (124.4-120.4)
Money Line: Blazers (+185), Grizzlies (-225)
BPI Projected winner: Grizzlies (63.7%)
Total: 239 points BPI Projected Total: 244.8 points

Injury Report:
Blazers: Josh Hart, (GTD - Hamstring); Jusuf Nurkic, (GTD - Calf); Justise Winslow, (OUT - Ankle)
Grizzlies: Danny Green, (GTD - Knee); Desmond Bane, (GTD - Knee); John Konchar, (GTD - Concussion); Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Brandon Clarke (available in 47.8% of leagues) Clarke is the starter at center for the Grizzlies with Steven Adams out, and he's consistently producing. In his last three games, all starts, Clarke has averaged 15.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.7 SPG and 0.8 BPG in 25.7 MPG. -- Snellings

Best bet: Damian Lillard over 40.5 points + assists. Lillard is absolutely cooking with grease right now scoring 42, 30, 60 and 37 points over his last four games. He also had a couple more 40-point outings and a 50-burger earlier in January and has topped that 40.5 number in points and assists in seven of his last 10 games. The Grizzlies are a middle-of-the-road defensive team against opposing point guards, and it doesn't appear that Lillard can be stopped right now. And he's probably looking forward to having a shootout with Ja Morant tonight. Hopefully, he takes care of the over in points alone, so the assist number won't even matter. -- Alexander


Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

Records (Against the Spread)
Thunder: 24-26 (32-18-0)
Rockets: 12-38 (18-29-3)

Line: Thunder (-6)
BPI Projection: Thunder (117.7-114.6)
Money Line: Thunder (-225), Rockets (+185)
BPI Projected winner: Thunder (60.8%)
Total: 232.5 points BPI Projected Total: 232.3 points

Injury Report:
Thunder: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, (OUT - Ankle); Luguentz Dort, (OUT - Hamstring); Aleksej Pokusevski, (OUT - Lower Leg); Chet Holmgren, (OUT - Foot)
Rockets: Jalen Green, (OUT - Calf); Kevin Porter Jr., (OUT - Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Eric Gordon (available in 96.3% of leagues) Gordon has thrived of late and could continue to have a large role on offense with Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. out. Gordon is coming off a 24-point/7-assist performance in his last outing, and is averaging 16.7 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.1 3PG and 0.9 SPG in 31.7 MPG in his last seven outings. -- Snellings

Best bet: Thunder -6. While this looked like a classic battle for Victor Wembanyama when the season started, it's now just another game, as the Rockets are tanking and the Thunder are winning. The Rockets have managed to somehow win two of their last four games without Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. and will be without them again tonight. However, both of those wins were close games and came against the Timberwolves and Pistons, and Rockets fans aren't happy that their team has just one fewer win than the Pistons. They need to lose tonight and the Thunder are trying to make a playoff push, winning eight of their last 12 games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams have been rolling and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Rockets lay down and call off the dogs tonight. I just wish the game were in OKC, but you can't have everything. -- Alexander

Trend: Oklahoma City has covered each of their past six road games by an average of 11.4 PPG. The Rockets have a 3-10 ATS record over their past 13 home games -- Soppe.


Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota

Records (Against the Spread)
Warriors: 26-24 (24-25-1)
Timberwolves: 27-26 (25-28-0)

Line: Warriors (-2.5)
BPI Projection: Warriors (120.0-118.4)
Money Line: Warriors (-140), Timberwolves (+118)
BPI Projected winner: Warriors (55.5%)
Total: 239 points BPI Projected Total: 238.4 points

Injury Report:
Warriors: Andre Iguodala, (OUT - Hip)
Timberwolves: Rudy Gobert, (GTD - Groin); Taurean Prince, (GTD - Ankle); Jordan McLaughlin, (OUT - Calf); Karl-Anthony Towns, (OUT - Calf)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Kyle Anderson (available in 78.7% of leagues) has become a staple in fantasy hoops leagues for his consistent, well-rounded game. In his last nine outings, "Slow Mo" has averaged 11.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.1 BPG and 1.1 3PG in 30.0 MPG. -- Snellings

Best bet: Klay Thompson over 22.5 points. Thompson has quietly dominated on offense for more than a month now. He has only scored under 24 points twice in his last 13 games, averaging 27.2 PPG during that stretch. This game against the Timberwolves has one of the highest totals of the night and seems likely to be a scoring fest. -- Snellings


Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas

Records (Against the Spread)
Kings: 28-21 (27-22-0)
Spurs: 14-37 (23-28-0)

Line: Kings (-7.5)
BPI Projection: Kings (126.2-119.7)
Money Line: Kings (-305), Spurs (+240)
BPI Projected winner: Kings (71.7%)
Total: 244.5 points BPI Projected Total: 245.9 points

Injury Report:
Kings: None reported
Spurs: Josh Richardson, (GTD - Knee); Romeo Langford, (GTD - Hip); Devin Vassell, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Jeremy Sochan (rostered in 10.9% of ESPN leagues) should simply be on more rosters right now. He's scored in double figures in seven straight games and is averaging 18 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.6 3-pointers over that stretch. The Spurs are tanking and have lost five straight and 10 of their last 11, but that hasn't stopped Sochan and Keldon Johnson from going off on a nightly basis. Sochan has been better than just a streaming option for most of January. -- Alexander

Best bet: Keldon Johnson over 23.5 points. KJ has scored in double figures in 10 straight games and has scored at least 24 in three of his last four. He only scored 20 against the Kings on Jan. 15 but hit an uncharacteristic 8-of-25 shots in that one, going just 2-of-10 from downtown. He's hit at least 50 percent of his shots in three straight games and in five of his last six, and has basically been shooting lights out since that dud against these Kings. He'll be looking to make up for that poor shooting performance tonight and keep his double-digit scoring streak alive. -- Alexander


Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah

Records (Against the Spread)
Raptors: 23-29 (26-26-0)
Jazz: 26-26 (29-23-0)

Line: Jazz (-3)
BPI Projection: Jazz: (120.7-117.5)
Money Line: Raptors (+122), Jazz (-145)
BPI Projected winner: Jazz (61.8%)
Total: 230.5 points BPI Projected Total: 238.2 points

Injury Report:
Raptors: O.G. Anunoby, (OUT - Wrist); Otto Porter Jr., (OUT - Foot)
Jazz: Micah Potter, (OUT - Elbow)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Precious Achiuwa (rostered in 17.1% of ESPN leagues) is filling in nicely for O.G. Anunoby (wrist) and has scored in double digits in eight straight games. He went off for 27 points, 13 rebounds, two steals and a block on Saturday against the Blazers and has double-doubled in three straight games, as well in five of his last six. Anunoby is out again tonight and while the Jazz do a nice job of slowing down opposing power forwards, Achiuwa is hot enough to be deployed in all formats tonight. The Blazers are slightly worse against opposing PFs than the Jazz are, but not by much. Achiuwa is playing too well to be ignored right now. -- Alexander

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