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Andre Snellings, ESPN
ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Sunday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Sunday
We have two pivotal Game 4s on tap Sunday, with both home teams looking to get the win to even up the series. The 76ers won Game 1 without Joel Embiid but have lost both games the MVP has played in, while it took a monster 86 combined points from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant for the Suns to win a game in the series.
The playoffs are all about adjustments, as well as big performances from star players in clutch situations. We have the opportunity to see some big numbers put on the board Sunday, particularly out West. The 76ers and Celtics series has some hard-nosed defense, but the Nuggets and Suns are liable to have another offensive firefight.
Breaking down Sunday's slate
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
Game 4: 3:30 p.m. ET, Celtics lead series 2-1
Records (against the spread)
Celtics: 57-25 (45-36-1)
76ers: 54-28 (46-35-1)
Line: Celtics (-2.5) Total: 214.5
BPI Projection: 76ers by 1.1
Money Line: Celtics (-140), 76ers (+118)
Injury report:
Celtics: Blake Griffin, (game-time decision -- back); Marcus Smart, (GTD -- ankle); Danilo Gallinari, (OUT -- knee)
76ers: Joel Embiid, (GTD -- knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: James Harden over 20.5 points. Harden had a throwback 45-point performance in Game 1 but has followed that up with five total field goals made in his past two games. In Game 3 he looked hesitant, passing up good shots to dribble into trouble and throw the ball away. The buzz is that the 76ers had a frank team meeting and Joel Embiid told Harden to start shooting. Between that and all the heat coming Harden's way right now, I'm looking for the Beard to bounce back and turn in a strong offensive performance, at home, in a must-win game over the Celtics. Harden averaged 25.5 PPG in four regular-season games against the Celtics, and even with his struggles in the last two games, he's still averaging 24.3 PPG against them in three playoff games. -- Snellings
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Game 4: 8 p.m. ET, Nuggets series 2-1
Records (against the spread)
Nuggets: 53-29 (44-37-1)
Suns: 45-37 (42-38-2)
Line: Suns (-2.5) Total: 227.5
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 2.3
Money Line: Nuggets (+110), Suns (-130)
Injury Report:
Nuggets: None reported
Suns: Chris Paul, (OUT -- groin)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Kevin Durant over 29.5 points. I actually expect both Durant and Booker to go over in points, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Booker dish double-digit assists as well. Meanwhile, Durant is due for a game with his shot working. In the past two games, he has only made 37% of his field goal attempts. He still scored 63 points in those two games despite the rough shooting because his volume is through the roof with Chris Paul out. The Suns have been relying on Booker and Durant almost exclusively to produce their points. I expect the "other guys" to get more involved in this game, but I also expect Durant to find his shot, which should allow him to score his customary 30-plus points even if the offense is a bit more well-rounded Sunday. -- Snellings
Best bet: Jamal Murray over 24.5 points. Murray has scored 32 or more points in three of his past four games, with two of those performances against the Suns. Murray is embracing his "Playoffs Murray" reputation and is clearly the top perimeter scoring option for the Nuggets on a nightly basis. Also, Cameron Payne isn't the defender that Chris Paul is, giving Murray more runway to put a big number on the board in a game where the offense should be plentiful for both teams. -- Snellings
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