Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season wraps up Monday night with the Buffalo Bills (5-4) hosting the Denver Broncos (3-5).
What can we expect from a betting standpoint?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Seth Walder, Tyler Fulghum and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Denver at Buffalo (-7, 47.5). Only one of the Bills' four losses have come at home. How much does that factor in, and how are you betting this one?
Schatz: I'm not particularly concerned with whether the Bills have won games at home or on the road. In general, home-field advantage is the same for everyone over the long run and little trends like that don't mean much. What matters is that the Bills are a better team than their record indicates. Yes, their defense has really declined and has been the worst in the league over the past five games. But their offense has only dropped to third in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) over the past five games. It looks worse because of poor fumble timing and the need to complete longer drives to make up for the problems of defense leading to worse field position. I do think the defense can be better, even without its stars; and if the Bills' defense is just below average instead of the worst in the league, this should still be a top team. So despite the improvement of the Broncos' defense in recent weeks, I feel comfortable going with Bills -7.
Fulghum: It factors into my handicap significantly. Buffalo is a very trustworthy team when it is playing at home. I like the Bills -7. I don't think Denver is the type of team that can give the Bills trouble. The Broncos' defense has been lackluster all season. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is playing his best ball of the campaign. Buffalo is 5-4 on the season and in the thick of the AFC wild-card picture, so I don't think it's as likely the Bills look past this opponent in this spot. The Bills need the win, which I think they'll get with a cover on Monday night.
The Bills enter the game 5-4, and their win total is now set at 9.5. Looking at their schedule, do you like the OVER or UNDER?
Walder: I think the Bills' demise is overstated. We're talking about the team that, entering Week 10, respectively ranked fourth and third in expected points added (EPA) per dropback and designed carry! Josh Allen led all quarterbacks in QBR entering this week too. I know it's been a little rough for Buffalo lately, and the defense is also dealing with injuries, but with that level of offensive skill, I think the Bills go OVER 9.5 wins. The FPI agrees, with a mean Bills win projection of 10.0 entering Sunday.
Schatz: It's no surprise, if you read what I wrote above about the Bills, that I agree with Seth here. Our DVOA season simulation has the Bills slightly lower than the FPI simulation, with a win projection of 9.8 wins. The Bills have the sixth-toughest remaining schedule by average DVOA of opponent. But that still makes OVER 9.5 wins the right choice.
The Broncos have won back-to-back games, with their last one against the Chiefs. Do you think they've turned things around?
Schatz: I don't know. Define "turned things around"? Is the Broncos' defense still on pace to be one of the worst ever measured? Nope! But the Broncos' offense and defense over the past month are both essentially average. If going from bad to average is "turned things around," then I suppose the Broncos have done so. The current Broncos win total in the markets is, what, 6.5? My DVOA season simulation gives the Broncos an average pretty close to that.
Fulghum: I don't think they've turned things around. I think we know what they are this season: a mediocre football team. The win against the Chiefs looks great, but that's a division foe, and Kansas City suffered from many self-inflicted wounds. I am going to keep betting against Denver's defense which ranks 32nd in the league in rushing yards per game allowed, total yards per game allowed and points per game allowed.
What's your favorite prop bet for Monday's contest?
Walder: Ed Oliver UNDER 0.5 sacks (-145). Oliver has had a nice season with 5.0 sacks and a 15% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, which ranks 12th at the position. But this line is taking it a bit far: There's still a large gap between someone like Oliver and the elite defensive tackles like Aaron Donald or Dexter Lawrence II. I make the fair price -211 here, so the under is a solid value.
Schatz: Dalton Kincaid OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-118). The Broncos' defense ranks 26th in DVOA covering tight ends this season, and it allows an (opponent-adjusted) average of 68 yards a game to tight ends. Add to that the larger role that Kincaid has played in the Bills' offense since Dawson Knox was hurt -- with Kincaid registering at least 65 receiving yards in each of the past three games -- and Kincaid props still seem too low.
Moody: James Cook OVER 18.5 receiving yards. Running backs have terrorized the Broncos' defense all season. Cook is in a great spot since he is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. In terms of receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs, the Broncos rank near the bottom of the league.
Fulghum: Russell Wilson OVER 1.5 passing TD (+170). The Bills' pass defense has taken a big hit with the injuries to LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White. Each of the past three QBs to play Buffalo have thrown two touchdowns (Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow). The Broncos are coming off their bye, so they'll be fresh, and Sean Payton should be well prepared. As a 7-point underdog, game script could lead Wilson to be throwing a lot in the second half. The +170 price is the most appealing part about this bet
Is there anything else you're playing Monday?
Walder: Jordan Poyer UNDER 7.5 tackles + assists (-145). Poyer has gone under this number in five of eight games this season. This might be counterintuitive because Poyer is a safety, but if the Bills get out ahead in this contest, that works in the under's favor because the losing team is forced to pass, and passing plays result in fewer tackles (because of incompletions). With the Bills 7-point favorites, that scenario is very much in play. I project just 5.2 tackles + assists for Poyer.
Moody: Courtland Sutton to score a touchdown. Prior to the Broncos' bye week, Sutton and Wilson were starting to click. In Weeks 6 through 8, Wilson had a passer rating of 148.2 when targeting Sutton. The duo also scored a touchdown in three consecutive games. This matchup has a point total of 47.5 points, so Wilson and Sutton have a good chance of continuing their streak.
Moody: Javonte Williams OVER 13.5 rushing attempts. From Week 6 through 8, Williams surpassed 10 rushing attempts in three consecutive games before the Broncos' bye week. On Monday night, he will be leaned on even more against the Bills. Considering Denver's offensive line ranks second in run block win rate, this might be an advantage Denver will try to exploit against Buffalo.
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