Week 12 got underway with a trio of games on Thanksgiving, and now we get our first NFL Black Friday game before our main course Sunday. The New York Jets host Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins (-9.5, 40.5) at 3 p.m. ET in an AFC East showdown.
So what can we expect from a betting standpoint?
Betting and fantasy analysts Aaron Schatz, Seth Walder, Eric Moody and Anita Marks are here to provide their thoughts.
Odds by ESPN BET.
The Dolphins are near double-digit favorites against the Jets. Is there any reason to think New York can stay within the number?
Moody: With newly-announced starter Tim Boyle under center for the Jets, I'm taking the Dolphins to cover. New York has lost three consecutive games and has averaged a dismal 8 points per game. With this being an AFC East game, the Dolphins will be motivated even more to win. The Dolphins lead the league in total yards and points scored per game. They should be able to put up points against the Jets defense. Miami has covered eight of its last 10 games against the Jets.
Walder: Tim Boyle's career NFL QBR is 29. Somehow, that's higher than his college QBR (in FBS games only) of 16. You read that correctly -- 16. That number leaves out most of his games from FCS-level Eastern Kentucky but also: --16! The Jets were many, many games overdue to put Zach Wilson on the bench but should have turned to almost anyone else to play quarterback. Give me Dolphins -9.5 because I don't see how the Jets offense is going to score points.
Tyreek Hill is averaging 122 yards receiving per game, and his yardage prop for Friday is set at 77.5 yards. Do you like him to go over or under the total?
Schatz: Definitely an over bet here. Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are both strong cornerbacks, but the Jets do tend to keep their corners on specific sides, so you can move Hill around to get the matchup you want. Hill has gone over this total in seven of 10 games this season, and based on my projections, we should expect Hill to go over this total 73% of the time.
Is this the Breece Hall (O/U 50.5 yards) show for the Jets with Tim Boyle under center, or do you still think Garrett Wilson is capable of exceeding his projections (O/U 51.5 yards)?
Schatz: Jalen Ramsey should keep Wilson on lock. Who else is he supposed to cover on this Jets team? And Boyle is going to beat Ramsey to get the ball to Wilson? No, under 51.5 yards, please.
What's your favorite prop in this game?
Walder: Bradley Chubb over 0.5 sacks (+105). See my aforementioned comments on Boyle. Assuming Boyle is merely below average at sack avoidance, my model pegs Chubb's chances to go over this mark at 58% (after removing pushes). Very quietly, Chubb ranks third in pass rush win rate at edge this season.
Is there anything else you're playing on Friday?
Moody: Boyle OVER 1.5 interceptions. In three career starts, Boyle has averaged 31.3 pass attempts and 175.3 passing yards. He has thrown six interceptions in those games. Boyle won't be able to hide behind the Jets' running game against a team like the Dolphins, who rank first in points scored per game. It's one prop bet at plus odds that I find myself drawn to like a moth to a flame.
Walder: Bradley Chubb OVER 3.5 tackles + assists (+122). Even though the Jets are heavy underdogs, I have to imagine they'll want a more run-first game plan to limit Boyle's exposure. Without even factoring in how a change at QB could affect the Jets run-pass splits, my tackle model already leans over with 3.9 tackle + assists for Chubb.
Marks: Boyle OVER 1.5 INTs. The Dolphins defense has gotten better the last few weeks, finally feeling comfortable in Vic Fangio's system. Jalen Ramsey will be on the prowl. He has 3 INTs in three games (two last week against the Raiders). It took the Jets this long to move on from Zach Wilson for a reason, but Boyle could possibly be worse!
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