Happy Turkey Day to you and yours! Thanksgiving is one of the most-hyped days on the calendar so it's only fair that we take a look at what's worth feasting on and what you can pass by -- through my own personal, unbiased lens.
Worth the hype
My favorite bets for every Thanksgiving. If you gave me just these few things, it would be a successful holiday.
Lions and Cowboys games: Everyone's watching, there's enough other conversation that you don't mind the lack of nonstop Red Zone touchdown replays, and the tradition of both teams just feels right.
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Fantasy football: I'm in multiple leagues with my family so it's the one time a year we get to trash-talk in person, and the playoffs are just around the corner, so the games matter more.
Stuffing: The best Thanksgiving food. So many ways to make it and they all taste delicious (I prefer it baked with celery, onion, sausage and will make it by myself year-round because I don't want to wait until November.
Cranberry Sauce: Goes great with every other side dish, edible both homemade or by the jar, and the piece de resistance in the leftover turkey sandwich process.
Sneaky underdog plays
Don't sleep on these traditions, they have a chance to be a huge hit.
The national dog show: Most people pivot straight from the parade to football. I suggest using a second screen to see if Claire the Scottish deerhound can win her third title in four years.
Sweet potatoes/yams: The less-heralded potato side dish. But if they're candied or laden with marshmallows, you get dessert with dinner. What else can you ask for?
Turkey trots: Exercising in the morning burns the extra calories and leaves you hungry (literally and figuratively) for all the food you're about to enjoy.
-1000 moneyline picks
These safe bets are a classic, low-risk proposition that most people can agree on
Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade: It's fine. The musical guests lip sync, most of the floats are the same, and the commentary is predictable. Keep it on in the background all morning, but you've got more important things to do (prep food, clean the house, set your fantasy football lineup, place your same-game parlays on ESPN BET...)
Mashed potatoes: Don't get me wrong, a solid garlic cheddar mash is a top-tier food. But I can have that anytime I want throughout the year. I'll eat my fair share on Thanksgiving, but it's not special.
Pumpkin pie/apple pie: Another can't miss food. Pumpkin pie is certainly a seasonal thing so get your fill this week. But it doesn't hold a candle to the two truly elite pie flavors (key lime and lemon meringue)
Not worth the juice
The afternoon nap: Never been a fan of naps in general, I always wake up feeling worse. And if you're the only one napping, you get mocked by your family. Power through until dessert!
Prime-time football: By 9 p.m. ET I'm tired and full, and family is starting to head home. With a big day of socializing behind us and a big shopping day ahead of us, I rarely sit down to watch the entire night game.
Turkey: It takes the most prep time and many of us eat it on a regular basis. How much more special is Thanksgiving turkey than regular turkey?
Green bean casserole: We have to spend all year trying to eat healthy. On the one day we're given the green light to completely stuff our faces with reckless abandon, veggies are very low on my priority list.
The trends
One person I'm thankful for is SIG betting content expert Mackenzie Kraemer, who unearthed a cornucopia of great betting trends surrounding these three Thursday games. Here are some of them, presented without bias or context, along with other historical Thanksgiving betting nuggets I was able to find. Use them to impress your family this week.
Thanksgiving-related betting trends
The Lions have not been at least 7-point favorites on Thanksgiving since 2014 (-7 vs. Bears). They have not been favored by more than a touchdown on Thanksgiving since 1997 (-8 vs. Bears). Detroit is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 Thanksgiving games.
The Cowboys are 1-11 ATS in their past 12 Thanksgiving games. Only two of those seasons saw the Cowboys finish under .500, so these are strong Cowboys teams with a history of underperforming on the fourth Thursday in November. However, since the 1970 merger, the Cowboys are 12-0 outright and 9-3 ATS as double-digit favorites on Thanksgiving.
Since the NFL added a prime-time Thanksgiving game in 2006, favorites in those games are 12-4 ATS, including six straight covers. Unders are 11-5 in those games, including 7-1 in the past eight games.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-7.5, 46.5)
Thursday 12:30 p.m. ET, Ford Field, Detroit
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Dan Campbell is 34-22 ATS in his career, the best mark of any coach with at least 15 games to begin his career in the Super Bowl era.
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The Lions have only been 7-point favorites against the Packers twice in the last 40 seasons (-7.5 in 2017, -10 in 1992).
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Detroit has covered four straight meetings and is 11-2 ATS against the Packers since 2017.
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The Lions are 11-1 ATS in their past 12 division games (did not cover vs. Bears last week).
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The Lions are 7-3 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL.
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The Packers are 17-8 ATS as underdogs under Matt LaFleur (14-11 outright).
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Unders are 5-1 in the Packers' past six games.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-11, 48.5)
Thursday 4:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
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The Commanders are 6-1 ATS as underdogs, including 5-0 ATS as road underdogs -
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The Commanders are 5-1 ATS on the road.
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The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS at home and 7-1 ATS as favorites.
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The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their past five games.
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 43.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, Lumen Field, Seattle
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The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their past five games.
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Brock Purdy will be favored in his 16th straight regular-season start to begin his career, one game shy of Roger Staubach for the longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era.
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Home underdogs of at least 6.5 points are 9-1-1 ATS and 6-5 outright this season.
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Home underdogs of at least seven points are 8-1-1 ATS this season (5-5 outright).
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Pete Carroll is 17-9 ATS against the 49ers, and 19-8 ATS as a home underdog -
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Prime-time unders are 27-8 this season (.771). They are 150-93-4 in the past five seasons (.617).
The bets
David Montgomery over 66.5 rushing yards and Detroit Lions ML (-360)
In 19 consecutive Thanksgiving games featuring the Lions, the favorite has won. The Packers are dealing with more injuries on the short week and have the worse offense and defense, so the narrative and the eye test both give me confidence here. I also like pairing it with Montgomery's rushing prop. He's played six healthy games this season, and his lowest rushing output in those games is 67 (and he's had at least 74 in every Lions win). Meanwhile, Green Bay is facing the fourth-most rushing attempts and fifth-most rushing yards per game.
Washington Commanders-Dallas Cowboys over 48.5 points (-110)
The Cowboys and Commanders franchises have played on Thanksgiving five times in their storied histories. All games went over the total, by an average of 12.5 points. Each of the past four went for 54 points, including games with Andy Dalton and Colt McCoy starting.
With Dallas' offense turning extremely pass-heavy since its Week 7 bye, coupled with a Commanders defense that allowed Tommy DeVito to throw for 246-3 through the air, I fully expect points aplenty.
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 43.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, Lumen Field, Seattle
49ers (-6.5) and team total over 24.5 (-120)
I mentioned the incredible run of covers by prime-time Turkey Day favorites above (12-4 ATS all time). Geno Smith got banged up Sunday and Kenneth Walker III is likely out as well. The line might keep moving in San Francisco's favor until Thursday, but I'm hesitant to lay too many points against Pete Carroll so I'm specifically taking -6.5 here.
One final point in favor of the 49ers scoring: they've put up 27-plus in all 10 games Brock Purdy has played with Deebo Samuel. Deebo is the straw that stirs the 49ers drink; we saw the team put up exactly 17 points in three straight games that he missed (all SF losses). Purdy averages 9.3 yards/attempt between the numbers, the second-best mark in the league, while Seattle funnels more targets to the middle of the field than any other team.
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