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Jeremy Fowler
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Jeremy Fowler
senior NFL national reporter- ESPN staff writer
- Previously a college football reporter for CBSSports.com
- University of Florida graduate
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Dan Graziano
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Dan Graziano
senior NFL national reporter- Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels. You can follow Dan on Twitter via @DanGrazianoESPN.
Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are breaking down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz of the week. Plus, they picked out which teams are on upset watch and which players should -- or shouldn't -- be in your fantasy football lineups.
Is quarterback Aaron Rodgers really going to return this year for the Jets? What's next for the Panthers after firing coach Frank Reich? Will quarterback Mac Jones be on the Patriots' roster next season? And what are other interesting looming quarterback decisions for teams going into the offseason? It's all here, as Dan and Jeremy answer big questions and empty their notebooks with everything they've heard heading into Week 13.
Jump to a topic:
Rodgers | QB decisions | Panthers | Jones
Upset picks | Fantasy tips | Latest buzz
What are you hearing on Aaron Rodgers' potential return this season?
Graziano: It's tough. If only Rodgers would talk about it publicly, we might have an ... oh wait. There are a lot of layers to this. Obviously, Rodgers thinks he can come back and wants to try, if only to prove he can do it. The Jets have bent over backward to do everything Rodgers has asked since the moment they began pursuing him. So if he wants to come back, it's hard to imagine the team telling him no. That said, if the Jets' season is not salvageable by the time doctors clear Rodgers, it probably makes a lot more sense to shut him down and make sure he's fully healthy for the start of 2024.
Obviously a return this soon from an Achilles tear would be unprecedented, which means there's no historical guidance on the chance of reinjury and other potential issues. Assuming Rodgers plans to be back in New York next season, the Jets' priority should be making sure he's as healthy as possible by the time the 2024 season starts. But most people I talk to expect that if Rodgers wants to play and the doctors clear him, he will. (Update: Rodgers was cleared to return to practice on Wednesday.)
Fowler: Yeah, Dan, that encapsulates the dynamic, and people I've talked to say it's hard to get a true read on whether he would step foot onto a practice or stadium field. I continue to hear his health has improved seemingly every week. And he appears eager to help however he can this season -- especially supporting offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Rodgers, like others in the building, endorsed Zach Wilson. So there might be a feeling of wanting to make things right.
But yes, we're three months out from a torn Achilles, and the Jets have a 0.4% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN's Football Power Index. He could reinjure himself or play poorly behind a makeshift offensive line. The risk-reward ratio is heavily tilted to the former.
Graziano: That's why I think everyone will eventually sober up here and decide the best thing is to shut it down and devote all energy to making sure things are right for 2024. It's a tough situation, because the Jets feel like something was taken from them in what looked like a promising season. Offensive playmakers Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson would probably thrive with Rodgers at QB and haven't had that chance. And the defense, for the most part, has lived up to its high preseason expectations. But a lot of the decisions the coaching staff and front office made in the offseason have backfired, including not signing a veteran backup QB, and there's going to be a lot of pressure on a lot of people in that building to deliver in 2024. Rodgers is the key to the whole thing.
Fowler: The table is set for 2024. Rodgers is incentivized to return next season, with a guaranteed $35 million option bonus waiting for him. And assuming the Jets' coaching staff remains intact, he has a coach he likes in Robert Saleh and his favorite coordinator in Hackett. All of those factors portend that Rodgers can start fresh with the Jets in 2024 and put this season to bed. But again, he's a different dude. And the Jets are married to Rodgers, for better or worse. I'm not sure they would force him to sit, especially with the fan base so starved for more than one touchdown from its offense in a game.
What is the most interesting looming QB extension/contract situation for the 2024 offseason?
Fowler: It has to be Dak Prescott's future with the Cowboys. Dallas made it clear last offseason it is open to extending Prescott, whose current four-year, $160 million deal expires after the 2024 season. Well, Prescott is parlaying this de facto contract year into perhaps Dallas' first legitimate MVP candidate since Tony Romo finished third in 2014. Since his Week 5 dud in San Francisco, Prescott is on a heater with 1,874 passing yards (312.3 per game), 16 touchdowns and two interceptions. And his 75.3 QBR ranks second on the season behind Brock Purdy.
The first time around, Prescott's agent, Todd France, and the Cowboys negotiated for years before striking a deal, essentially forcing Prescott to play out the franchise tag. He hurt his right ankle, missed 11 games and still earned a contract far superior than what he would have taken at the beginning of those negotiations. Whether the Cowboys get proactive early in the offseason or stay patient will fuel one of the better upcoming storylines. The quarterback market already has surpassed $50 million annually, and Miami's Tua Tagovailoa will eventually add another comp to the mix.
1:22
RGIII: Dak is playing at a higher level than Jalen Hurts
Robert Griffin III says Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level this season and outperforming Jalen Hurts.
Graziano: Tagovailoa is the name that jumped to mind. The Dolphins made a big fuss about picking up his 2024 fifth-year option last offseason when there were plenty of questions about the wisdom of that decision. If he makes it through this season healthy and the Dolphins make a playoff run, they're probably going to have to tear up that $23 million he's scheduled to make in 2024 and get him signed to a long-term extension.
But what does that look like? How much of his injury history has to be factored in? I agree on Prescott and think there's enough mystery about the way that situation turns out for us to pay it a lot of attention. But I also think valuing Tagovailoa on a long-term deal is going to be a major challenge for a Dolphins team that's pretty heavily leveraged against the cap over the next couple of years.
Fowler: it really depends on how Miami views Tagovailoa and coach Mike McDaniel as a long-term partnership. They've had two good years together when Tagovailoa is healthy, so if that's enough of a sample to convince Miami, then the money is likely coming. The alternatives are scarce, and the two have been productive together. How Tagovailoa plays under pressure over the next 6-8 weeks will tell us a lot, too.
I'm curious about your take on Kirk Cousins. Will Minnesota get through the season with a mix of Joshua Dobbs and Jaren Hall and just say, forget it, let's throw Cousins the bag and run it back?
Graziano: That's absolutely on the table. Cousins likes it in Minnesota, and the Vikings won't have a high enough draft pick to take one of the truly elite prospects. Plus, coach Kevin O'Connell's first two seasons in Minnesota indicate the Vikings can and do expect to contend, rather than rebuild. I was wrong on them. I thought this season would be about figuring out who was and wasn't part of the future, but they have managed to weather the losses of Cousins and Justin Jefferson to injury and stay in the race. Kudos to them.
They have a large menu of QB options next offseason, and it's certainly possible they pivot away from Cousins to a different one. But he and the team do like each other a lot, and I wouldn't rule out a return. You just know he isn't going to come cheap!
What's the next step for Carolina after firing Frank Reich?
Graziano: Everything is (and must be) about Bryce Young. The Panthers are heavily invested in their quarterback and his future success. Jim Caldwell and Thomas Brown are in charge of helping Young finish out his rookie season and, ideally, show some strides and development. If they accomplish that, I would think one or both of them would at least get some cursory consideration for the job. But it'll be a wide-open coaching search that probably at least leans toward offensive-minded candidates, given the importance of Young to the future of the organization.
Fowler: Fostering Young's development is paramount, but the Panthers must be careful of narrowing the focus too tightly. The Panthers were set on getting an offensive-minded coach coming into 2023, eschewing the chance to aggressively pursue DeMeco Ryans or embrace interim coach Steve Wilks, who went 6-6 last season. Ryans didn't need offensive acumen to flourish in Houston -- he hired a good coordinator in Bobby Slowik to handle that. So my sense is leadership will be a big component here, someone who can galvanize and inspire that team. All criteria that you'd want in a coach, the Panthers will need it. That's how dire the situation is right now. The Panthers spoke with Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson last cycle. What are the chances they can lure him?
Graziano: I think Johnson will be a top target, but he'll be a top target for a lot of teams. And from his perspective, there might be better and more appealing situations than Carolina. But Jeremy, your point about hiring the overall leader (rather than a coach with an offensive background) is just so important when we talk about this search and every other coaching search that'll take place this January. Teams really don't pay enough attention to what they're exactly trying to hire. And too many teams end up regretting their decisions when they realize they needed more than just a playcaller.
And to be clear: I'm not saying Johnson isn't head coach material. He might well be, and plenty of teams have hired hotshot offensive coordinators who turned out to have overall leadership qualities that have shined brightly since they got the big job. Sean McVay and Mike McDaniel stand out as recent examples. Andy Reid is maybe the best example over the past two decades. But my point is we can say the Panthers will be looking for a coach who can shepherd Young's development, but we can't lose sight of the fact that there's more to Young's development than just what kind of scheme he's running. We often start with the wrong question here, and Carolina needs a Head Coach ... capital H, capital C.
Fowler: Bingo. Dan Campbell is another good one. He didn't have the offensive cachet of others but has proved viable in that area, along with his leadership. And Carolina's new coach must be skilled at situational football on Sundays, which a former Panthers head-coaching interviewee, Shane Steichen, is showing as Indianapolis' coach, going 6-5 with a backup quarterback.
Out of the 10-12 candidates the Panthers will inevitably interview, several will turn out to be good, either in Carolina or somewhere else. It might be worth talking to Michigan's Jim Harbaugh, too, because NFL assistants are off limits for a while, per NFL rules. Carolina could at least see what his vision for the job would be.
There's a ___% chance Mac Jones is on New England's roster in 2024.
Fowler: I'll go 20%. Jones could be hard to move via trade, and his $2.8 million guaranteed salary for 2024 would be an empty cost should the Patriots release him. Perhaps the team keeps him on as a backup or bridge starter. But my sense is the Patriots want to totally reconstruct the position by adding a veteran free agent and a draft pick. That leaves little room for Jones.
Graziano: I think your number is about right. The Pats have to pay him regardless, and he does have starting QB experience at the NFL level. If he has the right mindset about it, he could be a useful backup for a season behind whomever they bring in. But the greater likelihood is that they just move on -- especially if they end up with one of the top two picks and can draft USC's Caleb Williams or North Carolina's Drake Maye.
The question that looms over all of this, of course, is who's making the decision. By the time the draft and free agency roll around, will Bill Belichick still be there as the chief decision-maker? Or will the Pats have hired a new coach, a new GM or both? I'm not sure Belichick and his staff staying on would make the Patriots more likely to keep Jones, but the uncertainty around the leadership situation obviously bleeds into the quarterback situation.
1:28
Rex Ryan goes off on Bill Belichick and Patriot Way
Rex Ryan blasts Bill Belichick for exhausting players and claims Tom Brady was the only reason for the Patriots' Super Bowl wins.
Fowler: If we're assuming there's a new coach, Jones' fate could hinge on the offensive system in place. The feeling coming out of the 2021 draft was that Jones would have fit Kyle Shanahan's offense in San Francisco, so perhaps a skilled offensive coach from that tree could suit him as a bridge starter -- if his confidence isn't totally broken. That's a big if.
What's your top upset pick for Week 13?
Fowler: Broncos (+3.5) over Texans. Ride the hot hand. Denver has a formula for winning, with an opportunistic defense that generates turnovers, a stout running game and a few vintage Russell Wilson moments per game. C.J. Stroud has been humming with 1,466 passing yards in his past four games, but the Broncos haven't allowed a 250-yard passer since Patrick Mahomes in Week 6. Denver might just be a playoff contender, and it needs to get this win to help seal that fate.
Graziano: Panthers (+5) over Buccaneers. Hey, we saw the Raiders spring to life after a midseason coaching change earlier this season, and the Colts won their first game after firing Reich last year. The firing of a coach during a season can act as a shock to the system (even if it's temporary) that either energizes or refocuses players enough to deliver improved short-term performance. With Baker Mayfield banged up and the Bucs not exactly red hot themselves, I'm watching to see whether Carolina adds to the trend.
What's your fantasy football call of the week?
Graziano: Sticking with my Carolina theme, I kind of like Young as a streaming quarterback this week against a Bucs team that allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. This is a week in which Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Justin Fields are all on bye, and you might needs answers under center. I'd put New Orleans' Derek Carr here, but I'm worried he'll be missing too many of his receivers because of injuries, so why not take a flyer on Young and see whether there's a little bit of a bounce post-firing?
Fowler: Play Jayden Reed as WR2. The Green Bay receiver has a knack for finding the end zone, notching his sixth touchdown on the season (five receiving, one rushing) last week at Detroit, where he also led the team in targets (eight). In a Packers skill group full of first- and second-year players, Reed (second-round rookie) has emerged as perhaps the most reliable fantasy target. And quarterback Jordan Love is just heating up, averaging nearly 300 passing yards over his past three weeks.
What else are you hearing this week?
Fowler's notebook:
• Jim Harbaugh's name has percolated in league circles, with many believing this might be the year he takes the plunge back in the NFL. The sign-stealing suspension at Michigan looms large, and winning a national title with the Wolverines would make leaving the program almost poetic. He very well might want personnel power to accompany coaching duties, but he'd have a clear advantage in talking with teams that, per NFL rules, must wait until after the divisional round of the playoffs to interview candidates currently employed by NFL teams. Harbaugh isn't beholden by those rules and is free to talk now.
• The Buccaneers are optimistic Mayfield (ankle) will be available to play Sunday against Carolina. Mayfield is experiencing soreness but nothing that should hold him out at this stage, barring a setback. Tampa is on a 1-6 slide and senses the urgency entering a matchup with one-win Carolina. Lose this one, and the wheels could fall off.
• The Saints are beat up entering a crucial game with Detroit. A win would help a reeling team trying to regain outright first place in the weak NFC South. But two stars (receiver Michael Thomas and cornerback Marshon Lattimore) are on injured reserve, and several others got hurt Sunday, including defensive end Cameron Jordan (ankle) and wide receivers Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (quad). I'm told the injuries are not considered long term -- in Jordan's case, he "got rolled up on," per a source -- but the question is whether they can get healthy enough for this week. Jordan rarely misses a game, so here's to expecting him to maintain his Iron Man ways until proven otherwise.
• Steelers teammates and coaches talked with receiver Diontae Johnson this week about his lack of effort following Jaylen Warren's fumble in Sunday's win over Cincinnati. A source said Johnson was very accountable to the team about his mistake. He was frustrated by a near-touchdown on the previous play and essentially zoned out. The Steelers believe they are in a good place with Johnson moving forward.
Graziano's notebook:
• The Cowboys didn't get a deal done with free agent linebacker Shaquille Leonard when he was in their facility Tuesday, but that doesn't mean they won't eventually do one. Dallas wanted to get him in the building, assess where he is health-wise and talk to him about role and fit. Leonard, as I understand it, wants to assess his options and secure the best possible deal, as anyone in his position would. So this is something that could still take a few days.
Leonard is also set for a visit with the Eagles, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, and from Leonard's standpoint, that would be a dream come true: a bidding war between division rivals for his services. So we'll see in the next couple of days how serious Philly is and if anyone else reaches out. But it's still entirely possible he ends up a Cowboy.
2:04
Pat McAfee details what led to Shaquille Leonard's release by the Colts
Pat McAfee breaks down why the Colts would release a player of Shaquille Leonard's quality.
• Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is set to have surgery on his injured thumb in the coming days. The team's hope is that he can be back in 2-3 weeks, but in the meantime, expect the Colts to lean on Zack Moss, who was very productive in Taylor's absence earlier this season. Taylor injured the thumb in Sunday's victory over Tampa Bay and hoped it wasn't serious, but further testing this week showed it needed a surgical repair.
• The Patriots have scored 10 points in each of their past two games and a total of 54 over their past four, but they might do exactly the same thing this week at quarterback that they did last week. Namely, get both Jones and Bailey Zappe ready to play, and if the starter struggles, bring in the other guy. Last week, that starter was Jones, and he was benched at halftime. This week, it's possible Jones starts again. The two split practice reps last week, and according to sources, neither set himself apart. If, hypothetically, Zappe has a much better practice week, he could get the nod as the starter.
Regardless, whoever starts for the Pats at QB these days clearly has an extremely short leash. It does not sound like they're ready to take another look at Will Grier or Malik Cunningham right now, but those quarterbacks could be options at some point. It's a mess in New England.
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