Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season wraps up Monday night with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Seattle Seahawks.
What can we expect from a betting standpoint?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Seth Walder, Tyler Fulghum and Aaron Schatz provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET
Philadelphia at Seattle (-3, 45.5). In a game where Jalen Hurts has been downgraded to questionable with a worsening illness, and Geno Smith is also questionable due to a groin injury, how are you betting this game (or are you staying away from it entirely)?
Schatz: I'm staying away from this one. We just don't know who is playing quarterback for either side and I don't think we know how good Marcus Mariota can be for the Eagles. Then there are questions about defensive injuries such as Darius Slay being out. That's a lot of question marks to feel comfortable laying any money on a game.
Fulghum: I am staying away from this game. There is too much unknown with the quarterback position that it's hard to find an edge. Had the two been fully healthy and practicing all week I would have been interested in the OVER. These two defenses are extremely vulnerable to the pass and both offenses are equipped to take advantage. Unfortunately, the status of the quarterbacks is up in the air so I advise staying away.
If Hurts cannot play, how do you anticipate it changing the way the Eagles offense runs under Marcus Mariota?
Schatz: My only thought here is that we don't know how well Marcus Mariota can run the "brotherly shove" compared to Jalen Hurts. So that might suggest going with an UNDER because the Eagles may not be as likely to (or successful when they) go for it on fourth-and-goal or even fourth-and-1 earlier in a drive. But again, with so many questions about injuries on both sides, I would just stay away instead of betting an under.
Fulghum: If Hurts is unable to go, it will most definitely affect the way the Eagles play offense. Mariota is just not the same caliber of football player. Perhaps Philadelphia will be more inclined to lean into the strength of the offensive line and run the football. That could mean more opportunities than we've seen in many weeks for running back D'Andre Swift.
Back-to-back losses to the 49ers and Cowboys have given the Eagles longer odds to win the Super Bowl (now +750). Is this the time to bet on the Eagles as SB winners?
Schatz: No, the Eagles are only eighth in DVOA and the FPI simulation only has them winning it all 7.5% of the time which would be closer to +1250. I think the 49ers are too powerful and too likely to win the No. 1 seed, which would require the Eagles to likely beat the Cowboys (at home) and the 49ers (on the road) just to get to the Super Bowl, where they would probably face a stronger AFC team such as Kansas City or Baltimore.
Fulghum: I think the Eagles can win the Super Bowl, but I would wait to bet that. If they lose to the Seahawks on Monday night, their Super Bowl price will drop and that's when I'd advise taking a shot if you're an Eagles fan or backer. The 49ers are the best team in football, no question, but the Eagles can beat them in a single elimination format. Injuries could also become a factor providing further value on that Eagles future.
Walder: No. FPI has been down on the Eagles relative to their record for weeks now, and that appears prescient. Now the model has Philadelphia with just an 8% chance to win the Super Bowl, so 750 would be a bad bet in its mind. Even if you hadn't looked at their defensive numbers (Don't worry, I have: They rank 27th in EPA allowed per play!), the Eagles switching to Matt Patricia as defensive playcaller tells you everything you need to know about what's happening on that side of the ball.
What's your favorite prop bet for Monday's contests?
Walder: Quandre Diggs under 6.5 tackles + assists (-135). He lines up in the box just 2%, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and that makes him less of a tackling threat than other safeties. My model projects just 4.8 tackles + assists for Diggs. ESPN BET offers alternate lines for tackle bets (which is great) so you can also go for under 5.5 tackles + assists at +130 if you're feeling a bit more ambitious.
Moody: DK Metcalf over 60.5 receiving yards. Attacking the Eagles' secondary is the best way to attack their defense. Philadelphia's defense has given up 299.3 passing yards over the last three games, the second most in the league. Metcalf has averaged 7.7 targets per game this season. Against an Eagles secondary without Darius Slay, his physicality will be on display on Monday Night Football. Metcalf has surpassed 60.5 receiving yards in four of his last seven games. Whether Geno Smith is active or not, I am comfortable with this bet.
Is there anything else you're playing on Monday?
Moody: D'Andre Swift over 57.5 rushing yards. He's had two difficult matchups in consecutive weeks against the 49ers and the Cowboys. Swift only accumulated 52 total rushing yards on 17 attempts in those two games. Following the bye, he surpassed 57.5 rushing yards in Week 11 against the Chiefs and Week 12 against the Bills. There is a narrow spread in this game, which suggests that it will be competitive, providing Swift with ample rushing attempts to surpass 57.5 rushing yards in primetime behind an Eagles offensive line that ranks first in run block win rate.
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