We have reached the point of the Premier League season where, if you are chasing mini-league rivals or a particular rank, you may well need to take some risks.
The remaining gameweeks provide that opportunity — especially with Gameweek 37 being a double.
Here we will look at some low-owned differentials that might be the players to help you achieve your end-of-season targets.
Noni Madueke has now started the last five games, with two goals and one assist. He has worked his way into Mauricio Pochettino’s first XI and will probably stay there if he continues performing as he is.
Chelsea are one of the six teams doubling in Gameweek 37 and their fixtures from now until the end of the season are good from an attacking perspective.
| Fixture | Gameweek |
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West Ham (H)
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Nottingham Forest (A)
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Brighton (A)
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Bournemouth (H)
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Madueke is owned by 0.2 percent of managers and he’s only £5.3m so is very affordable. Chelsea have scored 63 goals (seventh-highest) from an xG (expected goals) of 64.57 (fifth-highest), therefore are a decent attacking side — and upcoming opponents West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth are all in the bottom six for goals conceded.
Madueke has shown lately that he can both score and assist, and seems to have the perfect mix of form, good fixtures and low ownership. Also, with Raheem Sterling (£6.8m) on the injury table, this should only increase his expected minutes.
The 19-year-old has been one of Manchester United’s best players this season — accumulating seven goals and seven assists. He has started every league game since Gameweek 11 so he is as nailed-on as they come.
United play Crystal Palace (A) next and then double against Arsenal (H) and Newcastle United (H), with a final away fixture to Brighton in Gameweek 38.
Bar the Arsenal game, I expect them to score in their remaining games, and Garnacho and Bruno Fernandes (£8.5m) are their best FPL assets. The Portuguese will have the higher ownership due to his recent returns but Garnacho at only 10 per cent ownership is a fine alternative.
He has the higher open-play goal threat and is cheaper. Due to United’s poor season, I can’t imagine too many managers investing in Garnacho so gambling on him could pay dividends and he is also an enabler at his current price.
Josko Gvardiol has two goals and one assist in his last three games and looks like the best Manchester City defender to opt for.
He has started the last six games and has been very attacking down the left. I think he has a good chance of starting City’s remaining four games.
There is a possibility he gets benched for one of the games in Double Gameweek 37 but looking at his schedule, there is sufficient time between games for him to play them all and no other City defender offers the attacking threat he does.
| Fixtures | Gameweek |
|---|---|
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Wolves (H)
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Fulham (A)
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West Ham (H)
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City are also one of the best defensive sides in the league and I wouldn’t be surprised with three clean sheets in their last four games.
They have conceded the second-fewest goals (32) and also boast the second-best xGC (expected goals conceded; 33.4) in the division.
Richarlison could be a fantastic differential for the remainder of the season. He has been in and out of the team since Gameweek 27 due to a knee injury. However, he played 26 minutes against Arsenal and 63 minutes versus Chelsea in Double Gameweek 35.
He should be fit enough to start now and there is every chance he will feature as the number 9 until the end of the season. With Timo Werner (£6.3m) ruled out for the season Son Heung-min (£9.9m) should shift to the left and the German’s injury also increases Richarlison’s expected minutes.
The Brazilian is only owned by 2.5 per cent of managers overall and has huge upsides.
| Fixture | Gameweek |
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Liverpool (A)
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Burnley (H)
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Man City (H)
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Sheffield United (A)
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Spurs play a defensively-suspect Liverpool next and then double against Burnley and Manchester City at home. Their final fixture of the season will be against bottom-of-the-table Sheffield United who have already been relegated. With the style of football Ange Postecoglou preaches, I can see Spurs scoring a fair few goals over this run.
Richarlison scored nine goals from Gameweek 16 to 23 where he was playing up top and if he manages to replicate that form he can help propel you up the rankings.
I can’t see many owning him due to so many quality midfield options and if you want him you will probably have to sell a good player.
But when going for a differential you sometimes have to take on the risk and go up against highly-owned assets.
Kai Havertz is arguably the most in-form player in the league. Since Gameweek 23 he has accumulated the most FPL points (107), returning eight goals and seven assists.
He has 12 goals and eight assists in total. The Germany international has started every game since Gameweek 23 so I think it’s safe to say he is nailed-on in Arsenal’s XI.
His stats have been great too, registering an xG of 10.8 and an xA of 3.4 across the season.
Arsenal don’t double in Gameweek 37 but looking at their remaining fixtures they are likely to score plenty of goals. They play Bournemouth (H), Manchester United (A) and Everton (H).
Mikel Arteta’s team have been one of the best attacking sides in the league, netting the most goals (85) with an xG of 69.5 (third-highest).
Due to Havertz not having a double I don’t see him being a hugely popular transfer despite his recent exploits.
But with the amount of goals Arsenal score it’s easy to envisage him outscoring most Double Gameweek options over the next three matches.
Differential captain punts
Another way you can choose to chase rank is with your captain picks. Erling Haaland (£14.1m) is very likely to be the highest-captained player this week.
Cole Palmer (£6.2m) or one of the Arsenal midfielders are still fine options for captaincy in Gameweek 36 and can act as great differentials to shoot you up the ranks.
Even Phil Foden (£8.4m) or Kevin De Bruyne (£10.5m) are terrific alternatives. They will be quite highly owned but not many managers will captain them.
Take each Gameweek as it comes as a lot can change with form and injuries, but it’s best to go for calculated punts and bet against the popular captain rather than going completely rogue with your choices.
(Top photo: Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images)
Article From & Read More ( Fantasy Premier League tips: How to choose your end-of-season differentials - The Athletic )https://ift.tt/W0b3MEj
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