The BJP’s fort of Gujarat goes to polls in the third phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and votes on May 7. The state has backed its choras, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, overwhelmingly in the past two elections and the BJP has swept all 26 seats on offer.
This time, the BJP has already bagged one seat, Surat, unopposed, and opened its tally before polling began.
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The BJP hopes to score a hat-trick, banking on the Gujarati asmita factor, the immense popularity of PM Modi, and the party’s stellar performance in the Gujarat assembly polls in late 2022. The Congress, on the other hand, hopes to make a breakthrough riding on voter fatigue, disenchantment amongst Kshatriyas, and an alliance with the AAP.
In the assembly elections, the BJP won a record 156 seats (+57). Congress was reduced to just 17 seats (-60) in 2022, despite a spirited fight in 2017. The grand old party recorded a vote share of 27.3 per cent, down by 14.2 per cent in 2017, conceding space to the AAP, which won five seats with a 12.9 per cent vote share.
BJP’s Fort since 1991, Forte since 2014
In 1984, Congress swept the state by winning 24 seats, with the BJP winning just one seat, in line with the national trend, emerging from sympathy after the assassination of Indira Gandhi. After 1984, in each election, the BJP has won more seats than the Congress.
In 1989, while the BJP won 12, Janata Dal won 11 seats and Congress just three seats. In 1991, the BJP won 20 of the 26 seats.
In 2004 and 2009, when the United Progressive Alliance )UPA) won the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress won 12 and 11 seats against the BJP’s 14 and 15 seats. However, in 2014 and 2019, it was routed.
The Congress recorded a 53 per cent vote share in 1984, which was reduced to 43 and 44 per cent in 2004 and 2009. The BJP received just a 19 per cent vote share in 1984, which increased to 47 per cent in the 2004 and 2009 elections, usurping the Janata Dal/Janata Party vote share.
However, in 2014 and 2019, the BJP increased its gap with the Congress, significantly leading by 26 and 30 per cent, respectively. The BJP’s all-India average lead against the Congress party was roughly 20 per cent. But in Gujarat, it was 30 per cent.
In 2019, Gujarat was one of the four states where the saffron party won all the seats, recording more than a 50 per cent vote share. It won 18 seats with margins of over 2.5 lakh, highlighting how winning elections in Gujarat has become the BJP’s forte. This time, the party has kept an ambitious target of winning each seat by at least five lakh votes.
The BJP’s all-India average lead against the Congress party was roughly 20 per cent. But in Gujarat, it was 30 per cent.
Congress banking on revival of KHAM
A controversial statement by Union minister and BJP’s Rajkot Lok Sabha candidate Parshottam Rupala about Kshtriyas has sparked protests around the state. Kshatriyas have been up in arms against the BJP, demanding the withdrawal of Rupala’s candidature from Rajkot, which the party has dismissed.
About 66 per cent of Patidars and 65 per cent of Kshtriyas voted for the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
This controversy has brought to the fore longstanding caste disparities between the Patels and the Kshatriyas/Rajputs in Gujarat. Patels have been traditional supporters of the BJP in the state. Kshatriyas, who formed the core of the KHAM bloc (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, and Muslims) of the Congress in the 1980s, moved to the BJP over the years.
The Congress, in light of this controversy, hopes to revive the KHAM vote bloc by exploiting the discontent between the Patidars and Kshtriyas, with the latter feeling sidelined by the saffron party. Congress strategists feel it would be able to improve its support among Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) through the narrative that the BJP will change the Constitution and end reservations if it wins 400 seats in 2024.
In 2019, while the BJP got 49 per cent SC support, the Congress got 44 per cent as per the Axis-My India exit polls. The BJP, however, got 63 per cent ST support, and the Congress, just 31 per cent.
The AAP significantly dented the Congress's vote base in the 2022 assembly polls. It bagged 18 per cent ST, 20 per cent SC, and 30 per cent Muslim support as per the C-Voter exit polls, spoiling the Congress’ chances in 50 seats.
An alliance with the AAP will help consolidate traditional vote banks and do well in reserved seats. The AAP is now contesting two seats in Gujarat and Congress 24.
Discontent in both camps
The Congress is battling cadre discontent over the loss of the prestigious Bharuch and Bhavnagar Lok Sabha seats to the AAP, with the late Ahmad Patel’s family raising dissatisfaction. From the BJP, too, sitting MP and Vadodara candidate Ranjan Bhatt expressed her "unwillingness to contest", as did the Sabarkantha candidate Bhikaji Thakor, after posters were put up opposing their candidatures.
Can Congress-AAP snatch a few seats this time?
The lead, which the BJP enjoys in Gujarat is huge - 30 per cent on average. This requires a huge swing to defeat the saffron party.
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If the BJP loses a five per cent vote share and this is lapped up by the Congress-AAP alliance, the saffron party will sweep all 26 seats.
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If the BJP loses 7.5 per cent vote share and this is lapped up by the Congress-AAP alliance, the INDIA bloc could win up to two seats.
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If the BJP loses 10 per cent vote share and this is lapped up by the Congress-AAP alliance, the INDIA bloc could win up to five seats.
In the end, it could boil down to Gujarati asmita. It's a matter of pride for the people of Gujarat that their former chief minister is now the prime minister and the top two slots in government are occupied by them. Will they give a 100 per cent score to the BJP again, or spoil the mood by giving a few seats to the others?
(Views expressed in this opinion piece are that of the author.)
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