ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Thursday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Thursday
The Golden State Warriors seek to even their series with the Los Angeles Lakers in a pivotal Game 2 on Thursday evening. Positioned as six-point favorites on most books, there's an expectation the Warriors are up to the task. Given this is the lone game of the day, let's delve deeper into how to approach the contest.
Draymond Green finished Game 1's loss with seven dimes, but the tracking data suggests he was due for a bigger number. The point forward paced the Warriors with 71 passes in the opener, 22 more than any teammate, leading to a team-high 21 potential assists (defined as pass that leads directly to a possession event; shot, foul, turnover). Averaging nearly eight assists during the playoffs, Green rates third in the postseason field in potential assists per game, signaling his passing prop of 7.5 assists this evening appears achievable.
There's also some interest in cleaning the glass, particularly for Anthony Davis on the heels of an incredible 34 rebounding chances (defined as the closest player to the ball at any point in time between when the ball has crossed below the rim to when it is fully rebounded) in Game 1. League leaders in this metric often hover around 20 chances per game, evidence just how often Davis was positioned around the glass in the recent win over the Warriors. Even as his rebounding prop sits at a fairly robust 14.5 this evening, the opportunity rates appear to support such production for the Lakers' resident big man.
Game of the night
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
Game 2: 9 p.m. ET, Lakers lead series 1-0
Records (Against the Spread)
Lakers: 43-39 (39-41-2)
Warriors: 44-38 (39-42-1)
Line: Warriors (-6) Total: 227
BPI Projection: Lakers by 0.2
Money Line: Lakers (+205), Warriors (-250)
Injury Report:
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Foot); LeBron James, (GTD - Foot); Mo Bamba, (GTD - Ankle)
Warriors: Patrick Baldwin Jr., (GTD - Toe); Andre Iguodala, (OUT - Wrist); Ryan Rollins, (OUT - Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Over 227 points. 229 points were scored in a Game 1 showdown in which both teams shot below their season average from the field (LAL 46.7% down from 48.2% and GSW 40.6% down from 47.9%), not to mention the fact that the Lakers shot an abysmal 24% from 3-point range. Additionally, the Warriors were likely suffering a case of the old "dead legs" coming off their Game 7 matchup with Sacramento. So with all that in mind, the Game 2 total is just 227.5? I'll side with the over in this situation. -- Joe Fortenbaugh
Best bet: LeBron James over 25.5 points. With the win in Game 1, this is James' fifth time opening a series on the road and winning. He hasn't lost any of his previous four series. So far in the postseason, James has averaged 22.1 points per game. In his career, he's averaged 32.6 points per game against the Warriors in the playoffs. James will be more active offensively in Game 2. -- Eric Moody
Best bet: Anthony Davis over 42.5 points + assists + rebounds. In Game 1, the Lakers made sure to use Davis in both the low and high post, giving them a clear advantage over the Warriors. While Kevon Looney is a solid player, he had a tough time guarding Davis. Let's be real, guarding Davis is no easy feat, just ask Domantas Sabonis from the Kings. The Lakers have a golden chance to seize two wins on the road as the Warriors, who just came off a grueling seven-game series against Sacramento, may still be catching their breath. Although Golden State will make adjustments, the Lakers have an edge in this match-up with Davis. -- Moody
Best bet: Kevon Looney over 7.5 points. In Game 1, Looney showed he's a valuable asset to the Warriors not just as a rebounder but also as an offensive contributor. While he may not be the main scoring option, the team will need him to step up in the paint. With his strong performance on the boards, Looney should have the confidence to make some important plays on offense too and surpass 7.5 points. -- Moody
Best bet: Warriors (-6). As we gear up for Game 2, I can't help but feel that Golden State will look to get off to a fast start. It's going to be a tight game, especially since Dennis Schroder and Jarred Vanderbilt had some success containing Stephen Curry in Game 1. But I know the Warriors will make adjustments and come out swinging. They shot well and protected the ball, but they didn't get to the free-throw line as much. There's a great chance that'll change in Game 2. The Warriors have done a great job all season covering the spread on their home floor. -- Moody
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