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Kamis, 04 Mei 2023

Who will win and why? The predictions and tips for Round 8 - SEN

After a more standard midweek than we’ve been used to, fans and players are gearing up for another weekend of footy.

Round 8 sees several sides meet in big clashes that could tell us where they sit in the scheme of the season.

Check out out who we think will win each game and why below!

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Carlton v Brisbane

Friday - 7.50pm - Marvel Stadium

After getting back into form against West Coast, Friday night’s challenge at home against Brisbane will be a true litmus test for Carlton.

Looking at the Lions, they enter the game with some genuine form behind them with four-straight wins, but their last three have been easy kills in North Melbourne, GWS and Fremantle.

With this game to be a true test of where both sides are at, you feel like if this game is decided by a big margin, it will put a huge dent in the other side’s premiership credentials.

In recent seasons it’s been the Lions that have had the wood over the Blues, winning in their lone battles in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Like many of Carlton’s games, their route to victory is probably though Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, and while they have their midfield back at full strength, that’s an area the Lions also excel in.

With Brisbane’s forward line firing, they simply have too much good football behind them compared to their opponents to not side with them.

If Carlton’s tells are held even somewhat, the Lions should be too strong here.

Tip: Brisbane by 20 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Richmond v West Coast

Saturday - 1.45pm - MCG

It would seem playing West Coast might just be this year’s free confidence booster and no team in the AFL needs that more than Richmond at the present time.

A few years ago, the idea of seeing the Tigers and the Eagles face off on the MCG would have been one of the more anticipated fixtures. Now, they sit in the bottom three alongside Hawthorn. Equalisation, hey?

Richmond has won four of their last five encounters with the Eagles, including a comfortable victory on the MCG last year.

They sit 2.5 games out of the top eight and while percentage isn’t a factor for them, momentum certainly is as they need to get cracking if they want to keep their season alive.

The Eagles were hapless in their 100-point loss to Carlton last Saturday night and while a couple of veteran bodies may be on their way back this weekend, it’s hard to see anything changing against Richmond.

Expect the Tigers to get back on track this weekend and breathe some life into their season.

Tip: Richmond by 60 points

Nic Negrepontis

Geelong v Adelaide

Saturday - 2.10pm - GMHBA Stadium

Adelaide hasn’t won in Geelong since Round 10, 2003 and on paper, this presents as their best chance for a while.

A 4-3 record doesn’t reflect how well Adelaide is going this season, while the Cats haven’t beaten much in a four-game winning streak.

To raise the stakes more, the loser of Saturday’s contest is likely to fall out of the top eight.

Therefore, with Adelaide’s early season dominance at the chance of going to waste, there’s no doubt Matthew Nicks’ men have plenty to play for more.

Strong wins over Port Adelaide and Carlton, along with a desperate one-point loss to Collingwood are strong form references to take on the reigning premiers.

But the Crows are also at risk of being labelled a flop if they concede a fourth-quarter swing once again.

In two of their three losses, the Crows have led at the final change and also threw away the momentum in the final term when falling to Richmond.

At their best last year, the Cats were renowned as one of the best final quarter sides in the competition, meaning an Adelaide lead at the final break won’t mean game over at GMHBA Stadium.

It could be a clash decided by Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins versus Taylor Walker and Darcy Fogarty.

Both key forward duos are in fine form and average the most goals combined of any tall pairing in the league.

But even though Sam De Koning has been forced out with injury, Geelong’s stingy defence plays too well to allow the Crows to kick a winning score, particularly with Chris Scott’s side averaging 109 points per game this year.

Tip: Geelong by 14 points.

Seb Mottram

Gold Coast v Melbourne

Saturday - 4.35pm - Heritage Bank Stadium

Is this the game where Gold Coast breaks their unfortunate streak against Melbourne?

It will take a massive effort.

The Demons have put the Suns through the absolute ringer over the past decade, with 2014 marking the last time Gold Coast claimed victory in this matchup, and it doesn’t look like this will change this week.

Melbourne looks to be back at their very best after being challenged multiple weeks in a row, dishing out a 90-point drubbing to the Kangaroos last round.

Meanwhile, Gold Coast’s bid to keep their season alive continued last week, taking down Richmond in a messy affair at Marvel Stadium.

The Suns weren’t playing their cleanest footy against the Tigers, yet showed impressive grit to hold on against a Richmond squad that is desperate to get another win in the books.

However, Gold Coast will have to take this level of intensity to a completely different level this Saturday, facing off against a Melbourne side that boasts the most potent attack in the entire competition.

The Suns have put together solid defensive performances recently, conceding under 60 points in each of their last two games, yet they still allow the sixth-most points per game this season, a stat the Demons would be licking their lips at.

Home field advantage doesn’t look to hold much weight for Gold Coast either, with Melbourne having lost just once in front of the Suns faithful.

This season has already seen plenty of shocking upsets, but it will take plenty for the Suns to fell this Demons juggernaut.

Tip: Melbourne by 34.

Jack Makeham

GWS Giants v Western Bulldogs

Saturday - 7.30pm - Manuka Oval

The GWS Giants return to Manuka Oval to take on the Western Bulldogs in the nation’s capital. Both sides enjoyed victories in Round 7 and will be keen to keep the momentum as we head into May.

In the Giants’ 11-year history, their biggest rivalry would arguably be the Western Bulldogs which stems back to the classic 2016 Preliminary Final. Unfortunately for the Giants, they have lost their last four encounters against the Bulldogs by an average margin of four goals.

However, they have forged a new identity under rookie coach Adam Kingsley who has instilled a belief in the group that they can win any game they play. This was proven by the Giants’ last-ditch win over the Sydney Swans, and despite having a 3-4 record, their biggest loss has only been 21 points against the Brisbane Lions.

The Bulldogs enter this contest with four wins from their past five matches and are beginning to look like the team many expected them to be this season. Skipper Marcus Bontempelli is in Brownlow Medal-winning form to start the season and fresh off his 200th match last week, he looms as the key to the Bulldogs continuing their winning ways.

The question for the Bulldogs is who will go to Toby Greene who has embraced the captaincy role at GWS. Greene booted four goals including the match winner in a super display at the SCG and often been the instigator in the more heated clashes between these two sides.

GWS defender Jack Buckley largely held his own against Lance Franklin but will have his work cut out for him if he goes to Aaron Naughton who has the ability to break this game wide open.

With temperatures expected to drop well below nine degrees celsius, expect the long sleeves to be out in full force and an entertaining contest.

Tip: Bulldogs by 11 points

Charles Goodsir

Fremantle v Hawthorn

Saturday - 7.30pm - Optus Stadium

Fremantle will play host to the Hawks this Saturday night in a game that doesn't really get the juices flowing unless you support the two sides.

The Dockers have had a shocking start to the year having won a final in 2022, but there's no doubt they'll be looking at this game as an opportunity.

Currently sitting in 14th with two wins and a cast percentage of 84.2, Justin Longmuir will be demanding a big showing from his side at home against the struggling Hawks.

Fremantle's record over Hawthorn is dominant, they've won their last four clashes by an average of 26 points.

As for the Hawks, they head to Optus Stadium without two of their best players, with both Luke Breust and Changkuoth Jiath sidelined as they look to overcome niggles that have stalled them early in 2023.

With those two missing, it makes it bloody hard to give them any chance of causing a big upset.

Expecting Andy Brayshaw to have a huge night and lead his side to their biggest win of the year.

Tip: Fremantle by 67 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

Port Adelaide v Essendon

Sunday - 1.10pm - Adelaide Oval

Essendon’s best win of the season came just a few short weeks ago at Adelaide Oval against Melbourne in Gather Round and they’ll be looking to make it two from two in the city of churches.

This time, they’ll come up a red-hot Port Adelaide outfit who continued their good season so far last after beating St Kilda last Friday night.

The Bombers will need to keep a close eye on Jason Horne-Francis, who was awarded 10 coaches votes last week against the Saints and is in a rich vein of form, despite being booed at Marvel Stadium last week.

Essendon blew the start against Geelong, giving up the first six goals and they’re going to have to be on from the opening bounce if they hold out any hope of causing an upset.

We’re tipping Port Adelaide comfortably here.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 29 points.

Laurence Rosen

Collingwood v Sydney

Sunday - 3.20pm - MCG

Collingwood did it yet again last week, fighting back at the death at three-quarter time to down the Crows in Adelaide by one point.

It was another come-from-behind win when at one stage it seemed a bridge too far.

On the flip side, Sydney found themselves in front of GWS in the derby, but failed to hang on and went down by a single point themselves.

That result - their second loss on the trot - saw John Longmire’s Swans slip to a 3-4 record and they badly need a win to breathe life into their campaign.

But they find themselves up against a Magpies side that just doesn’t know how to lose and who receives a significant boost in the likely return of inspirational midfielder Scott Pendlebury.

It’s near impossible to tip against the Pies at the moment given their ridiculous pressure late in games and their overall desire to win. They may not be playing their best footy right now, but they’re grinding out results under Craig McRae.

They’ve also won five in a row at the MCG and 14 of their last 15 at the venue.

The Swans, who have been hammered in their last two trips to the 'G, require a victory to get their season on track, but they may have to wait another week with the Magpies to get over the top in another tight one.

Tip: Collingwood by 6 points.

Andrew Slevison

North Melbourne v St Kilda

Sunday - 4.40pm - Marvel Stadium

The honeymoon appears to be over for Alastair Clarkson and his Kangaroos.

After victories against both West Coast and Fremantle in the first two rounds North Melbourne’s form and defensive structure seem to have fallen off a cliff.

In their last three matches, they have lost by an average margin of 69-points and with injuries to key position players Charlie Comben and Callum Coleman-Jones, it will be a very tall order to kick a score that will challenge the Saints on Sunday afternoon.

The Kangaroos will also be sweating on the fitness of star midfielder Luke Davies-Uniacke who missed last week’s 90-point mauling with a heel injury.

For the Saints, despite a disappointing loss to the Power at home last Friday night, they are still going strong as they sit third on the ladder with five wins.

In typical Ross Lyon fashion, St Kilda are far-and-away the best defensive team in the league averaging 62.9 points against per match, while the next best are Collingwood who average 75.9 against.

Former number three draft pick Jack Billings could be welcomed back into the side, but Saints fans will have to wait at least another one or two weeks to see the return of Max King.

Although Clarkson is more than capable of turning this North Melbourne side around, it’s not a short-term fix and this could become a percentage booster game for the Saints.

Tip: St Kilda by 42-points

Marcus Beeck

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